WWA Co-PI Noah Molotch is working with Director Ben Livneh on a project that will utilize historical and future snowpack simulations to understand the evolving risk of wildfire across the WWA three-state region. By applying ground observations, satellite data, and modeling, Molotch and Livneh will improve our understanding of the connections between fire and snowpack regimes. They will also use a recently developed technique to consider the compounded effects of future snowpack loss and summer precipitation and temperature extremes on wildfire risk. This project has profound implications for future wildfire management and adaptation, particularly in the water sector. Molotch and student Eric Kennedy have analyzed forest productivity data in Colorado and showed that snowmelt and soil moisture are important variables that dictate forest productivity during the growing season. This result adds to the previous literature by tracking the influence of snowmelt on soil moisture during the growing season and relating that to forest health metrics such as productivity.

Once completed, the proposed work will contribute to understanding future wildfire risks across diverse, fire-prone areas of the Intermountain West and will improve stakeholder resilience to climate change. We will share results with stakeholders and forest managers in user-oriented products to improve wildfire management and prescribed fire planning. The results will provide cross-disciplinary knowledge of historic and future hydrological and ecological hazards, which will benefit not only water managers but also forest management agencies. Results from this project will also inform stakeholder-focused activities.