March 8, 2018 (UT, WY, CO)

  • Even with near-normal February snowfall in many mountain areas, Utah and most of Colorado are still facing poor snowpack conditions and the strong likelihood of very low spring-summer runoff. Extreme drought has emerged in the Four Corners region and southwestern Utah, and severe drought has expanded in southeastern Colorado.
  • The snowpack in all Utah basins except for the Bear River and the northern Uintas, and in all Colorado basins south of I-70, remains at near-record low conditions with 30-60% of normal SWE, despite near- or above-average accumulation in February in many locations, particularly the San Juans. The Yampa-White, Colorado River headwaters, South Platte, and North Platte are in better shape but still below normal. Wyoming's snowpack has continued to lead the region, with well-above-normal SWE in the northwest basins and below-normal SWE in the southern basins.
  • The seasonal runoff forecasts issued for March 1 by NRCS and NOAA are largely unchanged from the February 1 forecasts, which does not bode well for Utah and Colorado. The forecasted runoff at most forecast points in Utah is in the range of 20-60% of average, while at most points in Colorado, the forecasted runoff is 40-80% of average. Wyoming's outlook is much better, with most points expected to see 80-130% of average runoff. The March 1 NRCS and NOAA forecasts for Lake Powell inflows call for 43% and 47% of average runoff, respectively.
  • Weak to moderate La Niña conditions are hanging on in the central tropical Pacific, with a transition back to ENSO-neutral conditions still likely by late spring. Historically, weak to moderate La Niña events carry increased odds for below-normal March-May precipitation for Utah and Colorado, which is reflected in the CPC seasonal outlook for that period.
  • February brought overall near-normal or above-normal precipitation for nearly all of Wyoming, most of Colorado, and parts of Utah, while most of Utah, and southeastern Colorado, were drier than normal. Temperatures were near normal in Utah and most of Colorado, but were much colder than normal in most of Wyoming and in northeastern Colorado.
  • Since early February, drought conditions have worsened in southern Utah and southern Colorado, including the emergence of D3 (extreme drought) in the Four Corners region and southwestern Utah, while easing in north-central and northeastern Colorado. As of March 6, 52% of Utah is in D2 or D3, and the remainder in D0 or D1; in Colorado, 46% is in D2-D3, and 44% in D0-D1; and in Wyoming, only 20% is in D0-D1, with no D2-D3.

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