January 9, 2017
- Snowpack conditions have completely turned around after a grim start. A major storm kicked off the new year, and as of January 9 nearly all basins across the region have above-median SWE, with most basins at 120-170% of median. The snowpack across Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming for the date appears to be the 3rd-highest in the past 25 years, after 1997 and 2011.
- The January 1 NRCS spring-summer runoff forecasts call for near-average to much-above-average runoff across the region, with the highest runoff expected in Utah and western Wyoming. Note that these forecasts do not incorporate the most recent snowfall.
- Nearly all of the region was wetter than normal in December, with many areas seeing over 200% of normal precipitation. Statewide, Wyoming was in the 96th percentile for precipitation, Colorado was in the 90th percentile, while Utah was in the 88th percentile.
- There was a strong north-south gradient in temperature anomalies in December, with southern and eastern Utah and western Colorado warmer than normal, while much of Wyoming was 6-12°F below normal for the month.
- Since early December there has been improvement in drought conditions, mainly from D0 to drought-free, in western Colorado, eastern Utah, and northern Wyoming. The proportion of the region in D1 or D2 conditions has held steady, with 37% of Colorado, 13% of Utah, and 16% of Wyoming.
- Weak La Niña conditions are persisting, barely, in the tropical Pacific. The ENSO forecast models now more strongly favor a return to ENSO-neutral conditions by late winter/early spring. NOAA CPC seasonal forecasts show a La Niña-esque wet tilt in the odds for Wyoming over the next 3-4 months.