February 9, 2017
- The region's snowpack accumulation has continued along a very high trajectory, with most basins at 125-180% of median SWE as of February 9th. Many sites are now above the median peak seasonal SWE in southwestern Wyoming, northern Utah, and southern and central Colorado. Only a handful of sites, mainly in central Wyoming, are lagging behind normal conditions.
- The February 1 NRCS spring-summer runoff forecasts call for above-average runoff at nearly all forecast points across the region, with >150% of average runoff expected in northern and central Utah, southwestern Wyoming, and far south-central Colorado. Lake Powell inflows are forecasted to be 147% of average by NRCS, and 134% of average by NOAA CBRFC.
- January was very wet overall, with nearly all parts of the region receiving above-normal precipitation, and most areas seeing over 200% of normal. Statewide, Colorado was the wettest, in the 98th percentile for precipitation, with Utah in the 94th percentile and Wyoming, the 85th percentile.
- January's temperature pattern was very similar to December's. Southern and eastern Utah and western Colorado were slightly warmer than normal, while northern Utah and all of Wyoming were 3-12°F below normal for the month.
- Drought conditions have continued to improve since early January in southern Wyoming, northwestern Colorado, and central and northern Utah, but persist in eastern Colorado and northeastern Wyoming. D1 or D2 conditions now cover 35% of Colorado (same as last month), 9% of Wyoming (down from 16%), and 0% of Utah (down from 13%).
- Weak La Niña conditions are just hanging on in the tropical Pacific, with increasing signs of imminent transition to neutral conditions. The ENSO forecast models point to ENSO-neutral conditions by early spring, continuing into summer, with several models calling for El Niño conditions by late summer.