November 15, 2012

The latest monthly and seasonal Climate Outlooks released today (November 15) by NOAA CPC look very similar to those earlier this fall, showing equal chances (EC) for above-normal or below-normal precipitation for the December through March period. This lack of "tilt" for our region reflects that ENSO indicators in the tropical Pacific such as Nino 3.4 sea surface temperatures, after briefly flirting with El Niño, have returned to neutral conditions, and the vast majority of ENSO forecast models compiled for IRI's mid-November ENSO Prediction Plume call for ENSO-neutral conditions to continue through the winter. The CPC Climate Outlooks continue to show enhanced odds for above-normal temperatures for the winter season, consistent with the long-term trend towards warmer conditions. The latest CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook, also released November 15, projects that the drought conditions across our region will persist through February.