Seasonal Drought Outlook

The Seasonal Drought Outlook (DO) depicts general, large-scale trends from that date through the end of the forecast period (3 to 3.5 months, depending on the date of issue).  The delineated areas in the DO are defined subjectively based on expert assessment of numerous indicators described above, including outputs of short- and long-term forecasting models, as well as consideration of the typical seasonal cycle (it is easier to come out of a drought during the wettest time of year, just as it is easier to worsen a drought situation during that time of year, depending on its moisture anomalies). Areas of continuing drought are approximated from the US Drought Monitor (categories D1 to D4). Note: The green areas imply at least a one-category improvement in the Drought Monitor intensity levels, but do not necessarily implythe cessation of drought conditions.

• For weekly drought updates, see the latest Drought Monitor text (updated weekly). 
• For more drought information of all kinds, visit the US Drought Portal.
• NOAA NCDC produces maps of the precipitation anomalies needed to end a drought and the probability of their occurrence.