Niño 3.4 Sea Surface Temperatures, ENSO Prediction Plume

“Niño 3.4” refers to the region of the equatorial central Pacific from 120°W to 170°W and 5°N to 5°S, which is widely used for monitoring ENSO conditions. The Niño 3.4 SST time-series graph, produced by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University, shows monthly SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region from January 1982 to present. Values below zero (blue) indicate cooler temperatures, with persistent anomalies below 0.5°C being classified as La Niña (ENSO cold-phase) events. Conversely, values above zero indicate warmer temperatures, with persistent anomalies above 0.5°C being classified as El Niño (ENSO warm-phase) events. The arrow at the far right of the graph indicates the most recent monthly value. 

The ENSO Prediction Plume, also produced by IRI, shows 24 different model forecasts of SST in the Niño 3.4 region for nine overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., OND = October-December) extending 11 months into the future. Differences among the forecasts of the models reflect both differences in model design, and actual uncertainty in the forecast of the possible future SST scenario. The expected skills of the models, based on historical performance, are not equal to one another. The skills also generally decrease as the lead time increases. 

For more information about the ENSO forecasts, see the IRI page here. 

For a technical discussion of current El Niño conditions, see the ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, a collaborative effort of the several parts of NOAA, including the research labs, the IRI, and other institutions funded by NOAA (updated on the second Thursday of the month).

For updated graphics of SST and SST anomalies, visit here and click on “Weekly SST Anomalies”: