May 26, 2017 (AZ, NM)

Adapted from the May CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook

• April precipitation was average to above average in New Mexico, while most of Arizona was below average, including much-below average and record-dry conditions in the southwestern corner of the state. May has been dry in southern Arizona and New Mexico, while parts of northern Arizona and northern and eastern New Mexico have picked up decent precipitation relative to the normally dry May climate. Water year precipitation has been normal to above normal across most of Arizona and New Mexico aside from a small pocket of dry conditions along the Arizona-Mexico border.
• April temperatures were above average in nearly all of Arizona and New Mexico, with much-above average temperatures in southern Arizona . May temperatures in Arizona and New Mexico have ranged from 4 degrees below to 4 degrees above normal, while temperatures in higher latitudes and upper elevations have been generally warmer than average, ranging from 0 to 8 degrees above normal.
• Snowpack and snow water equivalent (SWE) have declined in Arizona and New Mexico, and most areas of the state have melted out at this point.
• The wetter-than-normal conditions that helped reduce drought conditions across much of the West provided limited relief (if any) in southern Arizona and New Mexico, which have experienced a return of both short- and long-term drought designations. These changes are due to both near-record- to record-warm temperatures in recent months and very little precipitation falling since mid-January.
• The transition from spring into summer brings rising temperatures, little precipitation, and frequent high winds that create highly favorable conditions for fire ignition and spread. This year, fire conditions have been enhanced by the senescence of grasses that thrived under the moisture of last fall and warm temperatures this winter into spring, and have now left behind a pervasive blanket of fine fuels that exacerbate wildfire risks, especially during hot, dry, windy days.
• The three-month outlook for June through August calls for equal chances of above- or below-average precipitation in Arizona and much of New Mexico with only the northeast corner of New Mexico expecting increased chances of above-average precipitation. Increased chances of above-average temperatures are forecast for the entire southwestern region.
• Forecasts favor above-average temperatures in all of the Rio Grande/Bravo Basin, and above-average precipitation in the southern portion of the Basin, through August.