{ From user Administrator, Model Farm_Adapt_dynamic at 26-Apr-2013 5:23:24 PM }
SoftwareVersion 4.4.3
{ System Variables with non-default values: }
Time := [1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025]
Units Time: year
WindState Time: 2,292,112,757,624
DisplayOutputs Time:
{!40000|Att_GraphIndexRange Time: 1,,,,,,10}
{!40300|Att_SlicerPopupSize Time: 227,168}
SampleSize := 1000
SampleType := 2
{!40000|Att_ContLineStyle Run: 0}
{!40000|Att_CatLineStyle Run: 0}
TypeChecking := 1
Checking := 0
SaveOptions := 2
SaveValues := 0
Naming := 2
StatsSelect := [1,1,1,1,1,0,1,0]
{!40000|Att_ContLineStyle Graph_Primary_Valdim: 6}
{!40000|Att_GraphValueRange Graph_Pdf_Valdim: 1,0,1,1,,,10}
{!40000|Att_CatLineStyle Graph_Prob_Valdim: 9}
{!40000|Att_CatLineStyle Graph_CumProb_Valdim: 9}
{!40300|Sys_DomainSelfIndex := 1}
{!40400|Sys_AllNullTreatment := 1}
{!40300|ProactivelyEvaluate Index: 1}
Model Farm_Adapt_dynamic
Title: Farm Adapt dynamic
Author: Administrator
Date: Wed, Jun 15, 2011 12:16 PM
SaveAuthor: Administrator
SaveDate: Fri, Apr 26, 2013 5:23 PM
DefaultSize: 48,24
DiagState: 2,85,57,1241,806,17
WindState: 2,821,22,476,224
DiagramColor: 45875,45875,45875
FontStyle: Arial, 15
FileInfo: 0,Model Farm_Adapt_dynamic,2,2,0,0,C:\Documents and Settings\Administrator.SCIPOLX\My Documents\Mary's\Work for Travis\Crop model\FarmAdapt.ana
OutlinerState: 2,36,43,450,600
{!40400|Att_clearTypeFonts: 0}
Module Model1
Title: Model
Author: Administrator
Date: Fri, Jul 15, 2011 2:48 PM
DefaultSize: 48,24
NodeLocation: 736,216,1
NodeSize: 68,36
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0,
DiagState: 2,154,-14,849,833,17
Index Years_index
Title: Years index
Definition: Sequence( 1991, 2011 )
NodeLocation: 288,168,1
NodeSize: 48,24
WindState: 2,98,83,490,533
Aliases: FormNode Years_index1
NodeColor: 26214,26214,26214
{!40000|Att_PrevIndexValue: [1991,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011]}
Constant Farmable_acres
Title: Farmable acres
Units: acres
Description: Total number of farmable acres
Definition: 2000
NodeLocation: 408,440,1
NodeSize: 48,31
WindState: 2,323,208,484,764
Aliases: Alias Acres_planted_Conti1
NodeColor: 55705,55705,55705
Constant Cost_acre_of_unplant
Title: Cost/acre of unplanted land
Units: $/acre
Description: cost of maintenance to leave one acre of land unplanted for the year.
Definition: Table(Adaptation)(0,18,0,18)
NodeLocation: 408,56,1
NodeSize: 48,44
WindState: 2,102,83,467,312
Aliases: Alias Cost_acre_of_unplan6, Alias Cost_acre_of_unplan5, Alias Cost_acre_of_unplan1, Alias Cost_acre_of_unplan2
NodeColor: 58982,58982,58982
Decision Proportion_of_acres
Title: Proportion of acres switched to fallow
Units: acres
Description: proportion of acres moved to fallow when a failure occurs. Should always be written as a decimal.
Definition: Choice(Self,1)
NodeLocation: 408,160,1
NodeSize: 48,40
WindState: 2,98,83,491,536
Aliases: Alias Proportion_of_acres2, Alias Proportion_of_acres3, Alias Proportion_of_acres1, FormNode Proportion_of_acres_
NodeColor: 55705,55705,55705
Domain: [0.25,0.5]
{!40300|DomainExpr: Discrete(0.25,0.5,type:'number')}
{!40200|Att_ChoiceIndexes: Keyword Self}
Module Original_data_in_dis
Title: Original data in distribution form module
Author: Administrator
Date: Thu, Jul 28, 2011 11:00 AM
DefaultSize: 48,24
NodeLocation: 408,352,1
NodeSize: 56,40
DiagState: 2,-75,98,1221,808,17
NodeColor: 52427,58983,65535
DiagramColor: 52428,52428,52428
Variable Compare_yield_over_y
Title: Compare yield over year
Description: compares fallow and continuous yields from 1970-1995
Definition: [Adaptation_yield_dat,Continuous_yield_dat]
NodeLocation: 128,352,0
NodeSize: 48,31
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,1,0,0
ValueState: 2,645,386,1068,519,1,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,65535,65535
GraphSetup: Grid:0~
{!40000|Att_GraphIndexRange Years_index:1,,0,,,,25}~
{!40000|Att_GraphValueRange Compare_yield_over_y:1,,1}~
{!40000|Att_ContLineStyle Graph_Primary_Valdim:5}
ReformVal: [Years_index,Self]
Variable Cost_to_plant
Title: Cost to plant
Units: $/acre
Description: this does not take any differences in cost of planting following a fallow summer vs continuous into account
Definition: Table(Years_index,Adaptation)(~
117.37,117.37,125.37,125.37,~
103.41,103.41,111.41,111.41,~
116.58,116.58,124.58,124.58,~
118.19,118.19,126.19,126.19,~
123.87,123.87,131.87,131.87,~
65.90000000000001,65.90000000000001,75.90000000000001,75.90000000000001,~
72.41,72.41,82.41,82.41,~
76.56,76.56,86.56,86.56,~
83.52,83.52,93.52,93.52,~
109.75,109.75,119.75,119.75,~
109.81,109.81,119.81,119.81,~
99.95,99.95,109.95,109.95,~
115.5,115.5,125.5,125.5,~
65.90000000000001,65.90000000000001,75.90000000000001,75.90000000000001,~
72.41,72.41,82.41,82.41,~
76.56,76.56,86.56,86.56,~
83.52,83.52,93.52,93.52,~
109.75,109.75,119.75,119.75,~
109.81,109.81,119.81,119.81,~
99.95,99.95,109.95,109.95,~
115.5,115.5,125.5,125.5)
NodeLocation: 1008,64,1
NodeSize: 48,24
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
WindState: 2,102,83,476,224
DefnState: 2,1178,98,647,671,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,1442,18,423,681,0,MIDM
Aliases: FormNode Cost_to_plant1
NodeColor: 65535,65535,65535
ReformDef: [Adaptation,Years_index]
Variable Market_Price
Title: Market Price
Units: $/bushel
Description: Price (indexed by Years index) national average from 1970-1995 from spreadsheet Kidder wheat yields are all durum.
Definition: Table(Years_index,Adaptation)(~
3.52,3.52,3.29,3.29,~
3.68,3.68,3.26,3.26,~
3.43,3.43,3.45,3.45,~
4.49,4.49,4.62,4.62,~
4.05,4.05,4.24,4.24,~
4.3,4.3,3.4,3.4,~
2.8,2.8,2.8,2.8,~
3.1,3.1,2.67,2.67,~
2.8,2.8,2.87,2.87,~
3.8,3.8,3.07,3.07,~
3.6,3.6,3.73,3.73,~
4.05,4.05,3.56,3.56,~
4,4,3.41,3.41,~
3.7,3.7,3.51,3.51,~
4,4,4.49,4.49,~
4.560000000000001,4.560000000000001,4.104,4.104,~
5.5,5.5,6.31,6.31,~
6.9,6.9,4.79,4.79,~
7.2,7.2,5.810000000000001,5.810000000000001,~
5.17,5.17,6.3,6.3,~
5.17,5.17,6.3,6.3)
NodeLocation: 448,64,1
NodeSize: 48,32
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
WindState: 2,1051,52,476,224
DefnState: 2,1042,249,734,616,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,223,21,822,671,1,MIDM
Aliases: FormNode Market_Price1
NodeColor: 65535,65535,65535
ReformDef: [Adaptation,Years_index]
ReformVal: [Years_index,Adaptation]
Att__TablePrintScali: 100,1,1,1,1,1,2794,2159,15,0
Variable Adaptation_yield_dat
Title: Adaptation yield data
Units: bushels/acre
Description: yield data (bushels) indexed by years index
Definition: Table(Years_index,Adaptation)(~
30.7,30.7,34,29,~
43,43,20,33,~
33,33,24,31,~
34.2,34.2,28,17,~
23.5,23.5,34,30,~
26.5,26.5,29.8,32.1,~
25.4,25.4,28.9,31.4,~
31.9,31.9,35.4,37.9,~
25.4,25.4,28.9,31.4,~
34.2,34.2,37.7,40.2,~
31.8,31.8,35.3,37.8,~
35.2,35.2,38.7,41.2,~
35,35,38.5,41,~
38,38,41.5,44,~
40.9,40.9,44.4,46.9,~
27.9,27.9,31.4,33.9,~
38.4,38.4,41.9,44.4,~
45.5,45.5,46.5,43.5,~
44.5,44.5,43,45.5,~
43.8,43.8,51.8,54.3,~
37,37,38.3,40.8)
NodeLocation: 128,208,1
NodeSize: 56,48
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
WindState: 2,300,277,476,224
DefnState: 2,573,320,792,539,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,358,123,611,574,0,MIDM
Aliases: FormNode Fallow_yield_data1
NodeColor: 65535,65535,65535
ReformDef: [Adaptation,Years_index]
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Years_index]
Variable Continuous_yield_dat
Title: Continuous yield data
Units: bushels/acre
Description: yield data for continuous method of farming wheat indexed by years index. 1970-1995
Definition: Table(Years_index)(26.7,26.5,29.5,33.4,20.3,24.6,18.9,25.4,18.9,27.7,25.3,28.7,28.5,31.5,34.4,21.4,31.9,39,38,37.3,30.5)
NodeLocation: 128,536,1
NodeSize: 64,48
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
WindState: 2,529,548,476,224
DefnState: 2,684,385,498,502,0,MIDM
Aliases: FormNode Continuous_yield_da1
NodeColor: 65535,65535,65535
ReformDef: [Adaptation,Years_index]
Variable Cont_total_productio
Title: Cont total production
Units: bushel
Description: Harvest yield distribution for continuous cropping
Definition: Continuous_Crop_yiel*Farmable_acres
NodeLocation: 440,536,1
NodeSize: 48,32
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
ValueState: 2,712,613,416,303,1,PDFP
NodeColor: 65535,65535,65535
ReformVal: [Undefined,Time,Undefined,Undefined,1]
Variable Gross_income_for_con
Title: Gross income for continuous
Units: $
Description: the distribution recieved (gross) for total continuous wheat productions. No costs have been subtracted in this node.
Definition: Cont_total_productio*Market_Price_non_ad1
NodeLocation: 584,536,1
NodeSize: 48,56
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
ValueState: 2,1141,614,416,303,1,PDFP
NodeColor: 65535,65535,65535
ReformVal: [Undefined,Adaptation,Undefined,Undefined,1]
Variable Dist_Cost_to_plant_2
Title: Dist Cost to plant continuous
Units: $
Description: distribution. Total cost to plant continuous crop. takes amount planted (continuous) in acres times cost to plant (as a distribution)
Definition: Cost_to_plant_non_a2*Farmable_acres
NodeLocation: 848,536,1
NodeSize: 48,40
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
WindState: 2,692,544,476,224
ValueState: 2,212,219,416,303,1,PDFP
NodeColor: 65535,65535,65535
Objective Dist_Net_income_cont
Title: Dist Net income continuous non-adaptive farmer
Units: $
Description: Distribution of net income for continuous crop (total gross received-total cost to plant) over all continuous acres planted. Both received and cost are in distribution form. Result used to normalize continuous net income in modules.
Definition: Gross_income_for_con-Dist_Cost_to_plant_2
NodeLocation: 720,536,1
NodeSize: 56,48
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
WindState: 2,387,299,500,488
ValueState: 2,474,181,669,412,0,CONF
Aliases: Alias Dist_Net_income_con5, Alias Dist_Net_income_con1, Alias Dist_Net_income_con3
NodeColor: 65535,65535,65535
Chance Market_Price_Dist
Title: Market Price Dist
Units: $/bushel
Description: distribution of market price
Definition: Normal(Mean(Market_Price,Years_index),SDeviation(Market_Price,Years_index))
NodeLocation: 584,64,1
NodeSize: 48,32
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
WindState: 2,98,83,485,632
DefnState: 2,296,299,644,361,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,600,133,389,201,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,65535,65535
GraphSetup: DistResol:10
ReformDef: [Self,Adaptation]
ReformVal: [Undefined,Adaptation,Undefined,Undefined,1]
Chance Cost_to_plant_dist
Title: Cost to plant dist
Units: $/acre
Description: cost of plant turned into a distribution
Definition: Normal(Mean(Cost_to_plant,Years_index),Sdeviation(Cost_to_plant,Years_index))
NodeLocation: 848,64,1
NodeSize: 48,32
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
WindState: 2,16,650,476,224
ValueState: 2,404,411,416,303,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,65535,65535
GraphSetup: DistResol:10
ReformVal: [Undefined,Adaptation,Undefined,Undefined,1]
Chance Continuous_Crop_yiel
Title: Continuous Crop yield normal distribution
Units: bushels/acre
Description: normal distribution of data for continous yields NOT following fallow years. 1970-1995
Definition: Normal(Mean(Continuous_yield_dat,Years_index),Sdeviation(Continuous_yield_dat,Years_index))
NodeLocation: 288,536,1
NodeSize: 72,56
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
WindState: 2,449,244,476,495
ValueState: 2,5,59,646,389,0,CONF
Aliases: Alias Continuous_yield_di1, Alias Continuous_Crop_yie6, Alias Continuous_Crop_yie7, Alias Continuous_Crop_yie5, Alias Continuous_Crop_yie8
NodeColor: 65535,65535,65535
ReformVal: [Undefined,Undefined,Undefined,Undefined,1,2]
Chance Yield_normal_distrib
Title: Yield normal distribution
Units: bushels/acre
Description: normal distribution of data from kidder wheat yields for yields following fallow years. 1970-1995
Definition: Normal(Mean(Adaptation_yield_dat,Years_index),SDeviation(Adaptation_yield_dat,Years_index))
NodeLocation: 288,208,1
NodeSize: 56,40
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
WindState: 2,49,583,718,417
DefnState: 2,810,404,983,373,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,572,112,881,673,1,PDFP
Aliases: Alias Fallow_yield_distri2, Alias Yield_normal_distri1, Alias Yield_normal_distri2
NodeColor: 65535,65535,65535
GraphSetup: {!40000|Att_ContLineStyle Graph_Pdf_Valdim:5}~
{!40400|Sys_PdfSmoothMethod:0}
ReformDef: [Self,Adaptation]
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Adaptation,Undefined,Undefined,2]
{!40300|Att_SlicerPopupSize: 247,42}
Variable Total_production
Title: Total production
Units: bushel
Description: total bushels harvested from planting 1000 acres (max amount of acres possible for a 2000 acre farm: which is why Farmable_acres is divided by 2 in the definition)
Definition: Yield_normal_distrib*Acres_farmed_for_eac
NodeLocation: 440,208,1
NodeSize: 48,32
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
WindState: 2,171,117,457,377
ValueState: 2,275,-2,698,365,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,65535,65535
ReformVal: [Undefined,Adaptation,Undefined,Undefined,1]
Att__TotalsIndex: Chance Yield_normal_distrib
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [Yield_normal_distrib,1,Adaptation,4,Sys_LocalIndex('Step'),1]}
Variable Gross_income_for_ada
Title: Gross income for adaptation
Units: $
Description: the distribution recieved (gross) for total fallow wheat productions. No costs have been subtracted in this node.
Definition: Total_production*Market_Price_Dist
NodeLocation: 584,208,1
NodeSize: 48,48
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
WindState: 2,1404,421,476,224
ValueState: 2,190,327,365,249,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,65535,65535
ReformVal: [Undefined,Adaptation,Undefined,Undefined,1]
Chance Yearly_cost_of_adapt
Title: Yearly cost of adaptation
Units: $
Description: Total cost to plant fallow crop. takes amount planted (continuous) in acres times cost to plant (as a distribution)
Definition: (((Cost_to_plant_dist*Acres_farmed_for_eac))+Cost_of_unplanted_a6)
NodeLocation: 848,208,1
NodeSize: 56,40
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
WindState: 2,593,501,476,224
DefnState: 2,946,621,679,316,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,999,363,416,303,1,PDFP
NodeColor: 65535,65535,65535
ReformDef: [Self,Adaptation]
ReformVal: [Undefined,Adaptation,Undefined,Undefined,1]
Objective Net_income_adaptatio
Title: Net income adaptation Normalizing node
Units: $
Description: Distribution of net income for adaptation (total gross received-total cost to plant) over all continuous acres planted. Both received and cost are in distribution form. Used to normalize fallow net income to 0 in modules for shifting climate.
Definition: Gross_income_for_ada-Yearly_cost_of_adapt
NodeLocation: 720,208,1
NodeSize: 48,40
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
WindState: 2,583,121,500,488
ValueState: 2,223,130,416,303,0,MIDM
Aliases: Alias Net_income_fallow4, Alias Net_income_fallow1, Alias Net_income_fallow2
NodeColor: 65535,65535,65535
Variable Cost_of_unplanted_a6
Title: Cost of unplanted acres fallow
Description: cost to leave an acre unplanted ($18) times the number of acres left unplanted. Acres planted is divided by 2 because only plant half of acres available.
Definition: Table(Adaptation)(0,((Cost_acre_of_unplant*Farmable_acres)/2),0,((Cost_acre_of_unplant*Farmable_acres)/2))
NodeLocation: 992,208,1
NodeSize: 48,31
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
WindState: 2,83,380,476,224
DefnState: 2,1411,86,487,303,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,104,107,1056,687,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,65535,65535
ReformVal: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,Time]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Adaptation,3,Time,1,MSD_Event_series_Mea,1]}
Alias Cost_acre_of_unplan6
Title: Cost/acre of unplanted land
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 1136,208,1
NodeSize: 48,44
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
NodeColor: 65535,65535,65535
Original: Cost_acre_of_unplant
Alias Acres_planted_Conti1
Title: Acres planted Continously
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 616,328,1
NodeSize: 48,31
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
NodeColor: 65535,65535,65535
Original: Farmable_acres
Variable Acres_farmed_for_eac
Title: Acres farmed for each adaptaion
Units: acres
Description: the maximum number of acres farmed each year. Only fallow has a decrease in farmable acres.
Definition: Table(Adaptation)(Farmable_acres,Farmable_acres/2,Farmable_acres,Farmable_acres/2)
NodeLocation: 848,336,1
NodeSize: 48,40
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
DefnState: 2,1335,347,416,303,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,65535,65535
Variable Market_Price_non_ada
Title: Market Price non-adaptive farmer
Units: $/bushel
Description: Price (indexed by Years index) national average from 1970-1995 from spreadsheet Kidder wheat yields are all durum.
Definition: Table(Years_index)(3.52,3.68,3.43,4.49,4.05,4.3,2.8,3.1,2.8,3.8,3.6,4.05,4,3.7,4,4.560000000000001,5.5,6.9,7.2,5.17,5.17)
NodeLocation: 448,672,1
NodeSize: 40,40
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
WindState: 2,1051,52,476,224
DefnState: 2,1042,249,734,616,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,223,21,822,671,1,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,65535,65535
ReformDef: [Adaptation,Years_index]
ReformVal: [Years_index,Adaptation]
Att__TablePrintScali: 100,1,1,1,1,1,2794,2159,15,0
Chance Market_Price_non_ad1
Title: Market Price non-adaptive farmer Dist
Units: $/bushel
Description: distribution of markep price
Definition: Normal(Mean(Market_Price_non_ada,Years_index),SDeviation(Market_Price_non_ada,Years_index))
NodeLocation: 584,672,1
NodeSize: 56,48
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
WindState: 2,98,83,485,632
DefnState: 2,296,299,644,361,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,900,35,873,662,1,PDFP
NodeColor: 65535,65535,65535
GraphSetup: DistResol:10
ReformDef: [Self,Adaptation]
ReformVal: [Undefined,Adaptation,Undefined,Undefined,1]
Variable Cost_to_plant_non_a3
Title: Cost to plant non-adaptive farmer
Units: $/acre
Description: this does not take any differences in cost of planting following a fallow summer vs continuous into account
Definition: Table(Years_index)(117.37,103.41,116.58,118.19,123.87,65.90000000000001,72.41,76.56,83.52,109.75,109.81,99.95,115.5,65.90000000000001,72.41,76.56,83.52,109.75,109.81,99.95,115.5)
NodeLocation: 1008,672,1
NodeSize: 40,40
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
WindState: 2,102,83,476,224
DefnState: 2,1178,98,647,671,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,1442,18,423,681,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,65535,65535
ReformDef: [Adaptation,Years_index]
Chance Cost_to_plant_non_a2
Title: Cost to plant non-adaptive farmer dist
Units: $/acre
Description: cost of plant turned into a distribution
Definition: Normal(Mean(Cost_to_plant_non_a3,Years_index),Sdeviation(Cost_to_plant_non_a3,Years_index))
NodeLocation: 848,672,1
NodeSize: 56,40
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
WindState: 2,1372,650,476,224
ValueState: 2,404,411,416,303,1,PDFP
NodeColor: 65535,65535,65535
GraphSetup: DistResol:10
ReformVal: [Undefined,Adaptation,Undefined,Undefined,1]
Variable Compare1
Definition: [Dist_Net_income_cont,Net_income_adaptatio]
NodeLocation: 752,384,0
NodeSize: 48,24
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0,
ValueState: 2,450,405,889,421,0,MIDM
ReformVal: [Self,Adaptation]
Close Original_data_in_dis
Module Reactive_Farmer
Title: Reactive Farmer
Author: Administrator
Date: Fri, Jun 08, 2012 11:26 AM
DefaultSize: 48,24
NodeLocation: 408,256,1
NodeSize: 48,24
DiagState: 2,-554,150,1537,419,17
NodeColor: 52427,58983,65535
Module Continuous__module
Title: Continuous module (rule of thumb)
Author: Administrator
Date: Thu, Jun 23, 2011 8:53 AM
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Chance Continuous_Crop_yie1
Title: Continuous Crop yield mean
Description: pulls the mean from the continuous crop yield distribution
Definition: mean(Continuous_Crop_yiel)
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Aliases: Alias Continuous_Crop_yie3, Alias Continuous_Crop_yie2, Alias Continuous_Crop_yie4
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
Chance Standard_deviation_o
Title: Standard deviation of Cont crop yield
Description: pulls the standard deviation from the continuous crop yeild distribution.
Definition: Sdeviation(Continuous_Crop_yiel)
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Aliases: Alias Standard_deviation12, Alias Standard_deviation_4, Alias Standard_deviation10
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GraphSetup: StatsSelect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0 ]
Variable Adaptive_farmer_cost
Title: Adaptive farmer cost (rule of thumb)
Units: $
Description: Total cost to plant continuous crop. takes amount planted (continuous) in acres times cost to plant . Takes into account adaptation (acres moved into fallow cropping).
Definition: Cost_to_plant_non_a2*Adaptive_farmer_acre
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ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time,Undefined,Undefined,1]
Library Multivariate_distri1
Title: Multivariate Distributions
Description: A library of multivariate distributions.~
~
In a multivariate distribution, each sample is a vector. This vector is identified by an index, identified by the I parameter of the functions in this library. A Mid value from a distribution function will therefore be indexed by I, whlie a Sample from a distribution function is indexed by both I and Run. These distribution functions can also be used from within the Random function to generate a single monte-carlo sample, which will be indexed by I.~
~
This library also contains functions for generating correlated distributions. Correlate_with, for example, allows you to generate a univarite distribution with an arbitrary marginal distribution that has a specified rank correlation with an arbitrary reference distribution. Several functions may be used for generating serial correlations, where each distribution along an index is correlated with the previous point along that index.
Author: Lonnie Chrisman, Ph.D.~
Lumina Decision Systems~
~
With contributions by:~
John Bowers, US FDA.~
Max Henrion, Lumina Decision Systems
Date: Fri, Aug 01, 2003 7:12 PM
SaveAuthor: Lonnie
SaveDate: Tue, Nov 11, 2008 1:59 PM
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Function Wishart1( cv : Number[I,J,Run] ; n :positive ; I,J : Index ; ~
singleSampleMethod : optional hidden scalar)
Title: Wishart(cv,n,I,J)
Description: Suppose you sample N samples from a Gaussian(0,cv,I,J) distribution, X[I,R]. (R is the index that indexes each sample, R:=1..N). The Wishart distribution describes the distribution of sum( X * X[I=J], R ). This matrix is dimensioned by I and J and is called the scatter matrix. ~
~
A sample drawn from the Wishart is therefore a sample scatter matrix. If you divide that sample by (N-1), you have a sampled covariance matrix. ~
~
If you compute a sample covariance matrix from data, and then want to use this in your model, if you just use it directly, you'll be ignoring sampling error. That may be insignificant of N is large. Otherwise, you may want to use:~
Wishart( SampleCV, N, I, J) / (N-1)~
instead of just SampleCV in your model. The extended variance will account for the uncertainty from the finite sample size that was used to obtain your sample CV.~
~
If you can express a prior probability on covariances in the form of an InvertedWishart distribution, then the posterior distribution, after having computed the sample covariance matrix (assumed to be drawn, by nature, from a Wishart), is also an InvertedWishart.
Definition: var T := if i0~
Each sample of a Dirichlet distribution produces a random vector whose elements sum to 1. It is commonly used to represent second order probability information.~
~
The Dirichlet distribution has a density given by ~
k * Product( X^(alpha-1), I)~
where k is a normalization factor equal to~
GammaFn( sum(alpha,I )) / Sum(GammaFn(alpha),I)~
~
The parameters, alpha, can be interpreted as observation counts. The mean is given by the relative values of alpha (normalized to 1), but the variance narrows as the alphas get larger, just as your confidence in a distribution would narrow as you get more samples.~
~
The Dirichlet lends itself to easy Bayesian updating. If you have a prior of alpha0, and you observe N
Definition: var a:=Gamma(alpha,singleSampleMethod:singleSampleMethod);~
a/sum(a,I)
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Function Binormal1(MeanVec :numeric[I,Run]; Sdeviations : positive[I,Run]; I:IndexType; correlationCoef : numeric[Run];~
Over : ... optional atomic ;~
singleSampleMethod : optional hidden scalar)
Title: BiNormal (m, s, i, c )
Description: A 2-D Normal (or Bi-variate Gaussian) distribution with the indicated individual standard deviations (>0) and the indicated correlation coefficient. The index, I, must have exactly 2 elements, Sdeviations must be indexed by I.
Definition: if size(I)<>2 then ~
Error("Index to BiNormal must have 2 elements")~
else begin~
var s := product(Sdeviations,I) * correlationCoef;~
Index J:=CopyIndex(I);~
Gaussian1( meanVec, If I<>J Then s else Sdeviations^2, I,J,~
singleSampleMethod: singleSampleMethod )~
end
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Function Multinomial1(N:NonNegative ; theta:NonNegative ; I : IndexType;~
Over : ... optional atomic ;~
singleSampleMethod : hidden optional scalar )
Title: Multinomial (n, theta, i )
Description: Returns the Multinomial Distribution.~
~
The multinomial distribution is a generalization of the Binomial distribution to N possible outcomes. For example, if you were to roll a fair die N times, an outcome would be the number of times each of the six numbers appears. Theta would be the probability of each outcome, where sum(theta,I)=1, and index I is the list of possible outcome. If theta doesn't sum to 1, it is normalized.~
~
Each sample is a vector indexed by I indicating the number of times the corresponding outcome (die number) occurred during that sample point. Each sample will have the property that sum( result, I ) = N.
Definition: var z := n;~
var k := size(I);~
~
var j:=cumulate(1,I) in I do begin~
Index I2 := j..k;~
var theta2 := Slice(theta,I,I2); /* unnormalized sub-process */~
var p := theta2/sum(theta2, I2);~
p := if IsNan(p) then 0 else p;~
var xj := Binomial(z,p[I2=j],~
singleSampleMethod:singleSampleMethod);~
z := z - xj;~
xj~
end~
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Function Correlate_dists1(dists : Context[I,RunIndex] ; rankcorrs : numeric array[I,J] ; ~
I,J : IndexType;~
RunIndex : optional Index = Run )
Title: Correlate Dists (d, rc, i, j )
Description: Reorders the samples in dists so as to match the desired rank correlations between distributions as closely as possible. RankCorrs must be positive definite, and the diagonal should contain all ones.~
~
The result will be distributions having the same margins as the original input, but with rank correlations close to those of the rankcorrs matrix.
Definition: if not IsSampleEvalMode and Handle(RunIndex)=Handle(Run) Then~
dists {Mid mode}~
Else begin~
var u := if Handle(RunIndex)=Handle(run) ~
Then Sample(Gaussian1(0,rankcorrs,I,J))~
Else Random(Gaussian1(0,rankcorrs,I,J),Over:RunIndex);~
var dsort := sortIndex(dists,RunIndex);~
var urank := Uniquerank1(u,RunIndex);~
dists[RunIndex=dsort[RunIndex=urank]]~
end
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Function Correlate_with1( S, ref : Context[RunIndex] ; rc : scalar ; ~
RunIndex : optional Index = Run )
Title: Correlate With (s, ref, rc )
Description: Reorders the samples of S so that the result is correlated with the reference sample with a rank correlation close to rankcorr. ~
~
Example: To generate a logNormal distribution that is highly correlated with Ch1, use, e.g.,: Correlate_With( LogNormal(2,3), Ch1, 0.8 )~
~
Note: This achieves a given unweighted rank correlation. If you have a non-default SampleWeighting of points, the weighted rank correlaton may differ.
Definition: if IsSampleEvalMode or Handle(runIndex)<>Handle(Run) Then begin~
Index q := 1..2;~
var u := If Handle(RunIndex)=Handle(Run) ~
Then Binormal1( 0, 1, q, rc )~
Else Random(Binormal1(0,1,q,rc),Over:RunIndex);~
var rrank := Uniquerank1(ref,RunIndex);~
var u1sort := sortIndex(u[q=1],RunIndex);~
var u2rank := Uniquerank1(u[q=2],RunIndex);~
var ssort := sortIndex(S,RunIndex);~
S[RunIndex=ssort[RunIndex=u2rank[RunIndex=~
u1sort[RunIndex=rrank]]]]~
end ~
else {mid mode}~
S
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Function Uniformspherical1(I : IndexType ; R : optional Numeric[I,Run] ;~
Over : ... optional atomic ;~
singleSampleMethod : optional hidden scalar )
Title: Uniform Spherical (i, r )
Description: Generates points uniformly on a sphere (or circle or hypersphere).~
Each sample generated is indexed by I -- so if I has 3 elements, the points will lie on a sphere.~
~
The mid value is a bit strange here since there isn't really a median that lies on the sphere. Obviously the center of the sphere is the middle value, but that isn't in the allowable range. So, an arbitrary point on the sphere is used.
Definition: if IsNotSpecified(R) then R:=1;~
var u := Normal(0,1,over:I,~
singleSampleMethod:singleSampleMethod); ~
var d := sqrt( sum(u^2,I) );~
ifall d=0 and @I then R/sqrt(size(I)) else r*u/d
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Function Multiuniform1(corr : Numeric[I,J,Run] ; I,J : IndexType ; lb,ub : optional Numeric[I,J,Run] ;~
Over : ... optional atomic ;~
singleSampleMethod : hidden optional scalar )
Title: MultiUniform ( c, i, j, lb, ub )
Description: The multi-variate uniform distribution.~
Generates vector samples (indexed by I) such that each component has a uniform marginal distribution, and such that each component have the pair-wise correlations given by corr. Indexes I and J must have the same number of elements, corr needs to be symmetric and must obey a certain semidefinite condition (namely that the transformed matrix [ 2*sin(30*cov) ] is positive semidefinite. In most cases, this roughly the same as corr being, or not being, positive semidefinite). Lb and ub can be used to specify upper and lower bounds, either for all components, or individually if these bounds are indexed by I. If lb & ub are omitted, each component will have marginal Uniform(0,1).~
~
The correlation specified in corr is true sample correlation - not rank correlation. ~
~
The transformation here is based on:~
* Falk, M. (1999), "A simple approach to the generation of uniformly distributed random variables with prescribed correlations," Comm. in Stats - Simulation and Computation 28: 785-791.
Definition: if IsNotSpecified(lb) then lb:=0;~
if IsNotSpecified(ub) then ub := 1;~
var R := if I=J then 1 else 2*sin(30*corr);~
var g := Gaussian1(0,R,I,J,~
singleSampleMethod:singleSampleMethod);~
Cumnormal( g ) * (ub-lb) + lb
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Module Depricated_multi_va1
Title: Depricated multi-variate stuff
Description: Functions found in this module are here for legacy reasons. They existed in older versions of the Multivariate library, but have been become obsolete for whatever reason.
Author: Lonnie
Date: Mon, Apr 30, 2007 3:49 PM
DefaultSize: 48,24
NodeLocation: 120,984,1
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Function Samplecovariance1(X ; I : Index ; J : optional Index ; R : Index)
Title: Sample Covariance
Description: This function is obsolete. In Analytica 4.0, the builtin function Variance can be used to compute a covariance matrix. The equivalent of this function would be: Variance( X, R, CoVarDim:I, CoVarDim2:J ).~
~
Returns a covariance matrix based on the sampled data, X, indexed by I and R. (I is the dimensionality of X, R corresponds to the samples). The result will be indexed by I and J -- supply J to be the same length as I.~
~
Note that the mean is simply Average(X,R), and doen't warrant a separate function.
Definition: var I2 := if IsNotSpecified(J) ~
Then (Index K/((identifier of I)&"2") := I do VarTerm(K)) ~
Else VarTerm(J);~
var Z:=X-Average(X,R);~
var Zt := Z[@I=@I2];~
Sum(Z*Zt,R)/(size(R)-1)
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Function Samplecorrelation1(X : array[I,R] ; I,J,R : IndexType)
Title: sample correlation
Description: This function is obsolete. A covariance matrix can be computed in Analytica 4.0+ using the built-in function Correlation. The equivalent of this function is Correlation(X,X[@I=@J],R).~
~
Returns a correlation matrix based on data in X, where each data point is a vector indexed by I, and the entries in the correlation matrix are the pair-wise correlations of the columns of data. A second index, J, of size identical to I, is required in order to index the 2-dimensional result.
Definition: var z:=x-average(x,R);~
var zt := slice(z,I,cumulate(1,J));~
sum(z*zt,R) / sqrt(sum(z^2,R) * sum(zt^2,R))~
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Close Depricated_multi_va1
Text Multvar_te7
Description: Parametric Multivariate Distributions
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Text Multvar_te8
Description: Creating an array of mutually correlated distributions:
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Text Multvar_te9
Description: Creating a single univariate distribution correlated with another existing dist:
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Function Normal_correl1(m, s, r, y: Numeric ;~
over : optional atomic ;~
singleSampleMethod : optional hidden scalar )
Title: Normal_correl(m, s, r, y)
Description: Generates a normal distribution with mean m, standard deviation s, and correlation r with normally distributed value y. In a deterministic context, it will return m.~
~
If y is not normally distributed, the result will also not be normal, and the correlation will be approximate. It generalizes appropriately if any of the parameters are arrays:The result array will have the union of the indexes of the parameters.
Definition: IF r<-1 OR r>1 THEN Error('Correlation parameter r in function Normal_correl(m, s, r, y) is outside the expected range [-1, 1].');~
IFOnly IsSampleEvalMode ~
THEN m + s * (Sqrt(1-r^2) ~
* Normal(Sameindexes1( 0, m ), Sameindexes1( 1, s ),~
singleSampleMethod:singleSampleMethod ) ~
+ r * (y - Mean(y))/Sdeviation(y))~
ELSE m
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Module Multivariate_intern1
Title: Multivariate Internal Functions
Author: Lonnie
Date: Tue, May 01, 2007 9:29 PM
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Function Sameindexes1(x, y)
Title: SameIndexes(x,y)
Description: Returns an array with the same indexes as y, and value x in each cell.
Definition: IF y=y THEN x ELSE x
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Function Uniquerank1(X : Array[I]; I : Index)
Title: UniqueRank
Description: Returns the Rank of X along I, but such that the rank assigned is unique for every element. Thus, when there are ties, instead of getting the same rank, as would happen with the Rank(X,I) function, the ranks will be assigned arbitrarily. Consider:~
[ 3, 1, 3, 2, 3, 2, 1 ]~
Ranks become:~
[5,1,6,3,7,4,2 ]
Definition: index Pos := @I;~
var s := SortIndex(X[@I=@Pos],Pos);~
var result := 1;~
for n:=Pos do ( result[@I=s[@Pos=n]] := n );~
result
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Close Multivariate_intern1
Function Multinormal1(m, s: Numeric; cm: ArrayType[i, j,Run]; i , j: IndexType ;~
Over : ... optional atomic ;~
singleSampleMethod : optional hidden scalar )
Title: Multinormal(m,s,c,i,j)
Description: A multi-variate normal (or Gaussian) distribution with mean m, standard deviation s, and correlation matrix cm. m and s may be scalar or indexed by i. cm must be symmetric, positive-definite, and indexed by i & j, which must be the same length.~
~
Multinormal uses a correlation matrix. Compare with Gaussian, which also defines a multi-variate normal but which uses a covariance matrix.
Definition: Gaussian1(m,cm*s*s[@i=@j],i,j,over,singleSampleMethod)
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Text Multvar_te10
Description: Reshaped distributions:
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Function Dist_reshape1(x : Numeric[R] ; newdist : all Numeric[R] ; ~
R : optional Index = Run )
Title: Dist_reshape(x, newdist)
Description: Reshapes the probability distribution of uncertain quantity x so that it has the same marginal probability distribution (i.e, same set of sample values) as newdist, but retains the same ranks as x. Thus:~
Rank(Sample(x), Run) ~
= Rank(Sample(Reshape_dist(x, y)), Run)~
In a Mid context, it simply returns the mid value of newdist, with any indexes of x.~
~
The result retains any rank correlations that x may have with other predecessor variables. So, the rank-order correlation between a third variable z and x will be the same as the rank-order correlation between z and a reshaped version of x, i.e.~
RankCorrel(x, z) = RankCorrel(Reshape_Dist(x, y), z)~
~
The operation may optionally be applied along an index other than Run.
Definition: IFOnly IsSampleEvalMode or Handle(R)<>Handle(Run) THEN BEGIN~
VAR dsort := SortIndex(newdist, Run);~
VAR xranks := Rank(x, Run);~
newdist[Run = dsort[Run=xranks]]~
END~
ELSE newdist * (x=x)
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Text Multvar_te11
Description: Arrays with serial correlation
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Function Normal_serial_corre1(m, s, r: Numeric; i: IndexType ;~
over : ... optional atomic;~
singleSampleMethod : optional hidden scalar )
Title: Normal_serial_correl(m,s,r,i)
Description: Generates an array over index i of normal distributions with mean m, standard deviation s, and correlation r between successive values over index i. You can give each distribution a different mean and/or standard deviation if m and/or s are arrays indexed by i. If r is indexed by i, r[i=k] specifies the correlation between result[i=k] and result[i=k-1]. (Then the first correlation, slice(r, i, 1) is ignored.)
Definition: Var x := Normal(0, 1,singleSampleMethod:singleSampleMethod);~
(FOR j := i DO ~
x := Normal_correl1( 0, 1, r[i = j],x,~
singleSampleMethod:singleSampleMethod ) ) ~
* s + m
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Function Normal_additive_gro1(x, m, s, r: Numeric; i: IndexType ;~
over : ... optional atomic ;~
singleSampleMethod : optional hidden scalar )
Title: Normal_additive_gro(x,m,s,r,i)
Description: Adds a normally distributed percent growth g with mean m and standard deviation s to x for each value of index i. The growth g for each i has serial correlation r with g for i-1.
Definition: x *( 1 + Cumulate(Normal_serial_corre1(m, s, r, i,~
singleSampleMethod:singleSampleMethod), i))
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Function Normal_compound_gro1(x, m, s, r: Numeric; t: IndexType ;~
over : ... optional atomic;~
singleSampleMethod : optional hidden scalar )
Title: Normal_compound_gro(x,m,s,r,t)
Description: An array of values over time index t, starting from with value x, and with compound growth applied for each time interval, with normal uncertainty with mean m and standard deviation s The growth g for each i has correlation r with g for i-1.
Definition: x * Cumproduct(IF t = Slice(t, 1) THEN 1 ELSE Normal_serial_corre1(m, s, r, t, singleSampleMethod:singleSampleMethod ) + 1, t)
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Function Dist_serial_correl1(x; r; i: IndexType ;~
over : ... optional atomic;~
singleSampleMethod : optional hidden scalar )
Title: Dist_serial_correl(x,r,i)
Description: Generates an array y over index i where each y[i] has a marginal distribution identical to x, and serial rank correlation of r with y[i-1]. If x is indexed by i, each y[i] has the same marginal distribution as x[i], but with samples reordered to have the specified rank correlation r between successive values. If r is indexed by i, r[i=k] specifies the rank correlation between y[i=k] and y[i=k-1]. Then the first correlation, r[i=1], is ignored.~
~
In Mid context, it returns Mid(x).~
~
Note: The result retains no probabilistic dependence on x.
Definition: Dist_reshape1(Normal_serial_corre1( 0, 1, r, i, singleSampleMethod:singleSampleMethod ), x)
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Function Dist_additive_growt1(x, g, r: Numeric; i: IndexType;~
over : ... optional atomic;~
singleSampleMethod : optional hidden scalar )
Title: Dist_additive_growth(x,g,r,i)
Description: Generates an array of values over index i, with the first equal to x, and successive values adding an uncertain growth with probability distribution g, and serial correlation r between growth[i = k] and growth[i=k-1]. x, g, and r each may be indexed by i if you want them to vary over i.
Definition: x + Cumulate(Dist_serial_correl1( g, r, i, singleSampleMethod : singleSampleMethod), i)
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Function Dist_compound_growt1(x, g, r; i: IndexType ;~
over : ... optional atomic ;~
singleSampleMethod : optional hidden scalar )
Title: Dist_compound_growth(x,g,r,i)
Description: Starts with x and applies a compound growth g for each value of index i. The growth g for each i has correlation r with g for i-1.
Definition: x * Cumproduct(~
IF i = Slice(i, 1) THEN 1 ~
ELSE (Dist_serial_correl1( g, r, i, ~
singleSampleMethod:singleSampleMethod ) + 1)~
, i)
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Text Multvar_te12
Description: Distributions on Linear Regression coefficients
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Function Regressionnoise1( Y : Numeric[I,Run] ; B : Numeric[I,K,Run] ; I,K : Index; C : optional Numeric[K,Run] )
Title: RegressionNoise(Y,B,I,K,C)
Description: When you have data, Y[I] and B[I,K], generated from an underlying model with unknown coefficients C[k] and S of the form:~
~
Y = Sum( C*B, I) + Normal(0,S)~
~
This function computes an estimate for S. ~
~
When using in conjunction with RegressionDist, it is most efficient to provide the optional parameter C to both routines, where C is the expected value of the regression coefficients, obtained from calling Regression(Y,B,I,K). Doing so avoids an unnecessary call to the builtin Regression function.
Definition: if IsNotSpecified(C) Then C := Regression(Y,B,I,K);~
Var resid := Y - Sum(C*B,K);~
sqrt( Sum(resid^2,I) / (size(I)-size(K)) );~
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Function Regressionfitprob1( Y : Numeric[I,Run] ; B : Numeric[I,K,Run] ; I,K : Index; C : optional Numeric[K,Run] ; ~
S : optional Numeric[I,Run] )
Title: RegressionFitProb(Y,B,I,K,C)
Description: Once you've obtained regression coefficients C (indexed by K) by calling the Regression function, this function returns the probability that a fit this poor would occur by chance, given the assumption that the data was generated by a process of the form:~
~
Y = Sum( C*B,K) + Normal(0,S)~
~
If this result is very close to zero, it probably indicates that the assumption of linearity is bad. If it is very close to one, then it validates the assumption of linearity.~
~
This is not a distribution function - it does not return a sample when evaluated in Sample mode. However, it does complement the multivariate RegressionDist function also included in this library.~
~
To use, first call the Regression function, then you must either know the measurement knows a priori, or obtain it using the RegressionNoise function.~
~
Var E_C := Regression(Y,B,I,K);~
Var S := RegressionNoise(Y,B,I,K,C);~
Var PrThisPoor := RegressionFitProb(Y,B,I,K,E_C,S)
Definition: if IsNotSpecified(C) then C:=Regression(Y,B,I,K);~
if IsNotSpecified(S) then S:=Regressionnoise1(Y,B,I,K);~
var resid := Y - sum(C*B,K);~
var n := size(I);~
var chi2 := sum( resid^2 / Mean(S)^2, I);~
GammaI( n/2 - 1, chi2/2 )
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Close Multivariate_distri1
Variable Adaptive_farmer_tota
Title: Adaptive farmer total production (rule of thumb)
Units: bushel
Description: Total amount of crop harvested/year. This node is represented as distributions influenced negatively for crop production. This node uses the "Adaptive farmer acres planted cont crop" NODE which takes the number of acres moved into fallow farming into account.
Definition: Adaptive_farmer_acre*Truncate_continuous_
NodeLocation: 392,496,1
NodeSize: 48,48
WindState: 2,87,447,530,514
ValueState: 2,1393,249,631,564,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time,Undefined,Undefined,0]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [Sys_LocalIndex('Possible_Values'),23,Time,1]}
Variable Adaptive_farmer_gros
Title: Adaptive farmer gross income (rule of thumb)
Units: $
Description: the distribution recieved (gross) for total continuous wheat productions under various conditions. No costs have been subtracted in this node. Takes into account adaptation (acres moved into fallow cropping). GC=gradual shift
Definition: Adaptive_farmer_tota*Market_Price_non_ad1
NodeLocation: 312,696,1
NodeSize: 48,56
WindState: 2,390,197,476,224
ValueState: 2,3,258,861,530,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time,Undefined,Undefined,1]
Objective NI_adaptive_farmer5
Title: NI adaptive farmer (rule of thumb)
Units: $
Description: Distribution of net income for continuous crop (total gross received-total cost to plant) over all continuous acres planted for each year. Takes into account adaptation (acres moved into fallow cropping). Is normalized by "Normalized net income proportion continuous" node.
Definition: Adaptive_farmer_gros-Adaptive_farmer_cost-Normalize_variable_f
NodeLocation: 688,696,1
NodeSize: 48,48
WindState: 2,1371,105,481,467
ValueState: 2,547,156,610,712,1,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
GraphSetup: Grid:1~
{!40000|Graph_LineThickness:3}~
{!40000|Att_Stacked_Lines Graph_Pdf_Valdim:0}
ReformVal: [Time,Adaptation,Undefined,1,1]
Att__TotalsIndex: Index Adaptation
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [Adaptation,-1,Time,1]}
Variable Adaptive_farmer_acre
Title: Adaptive farmer acres planted spring wheat (rule of thumb)
Units: acres
Description: number of acres that are planted as continious crop based on "acres moved to fallow". The total number of acres possible to plant is 2000.
Definition: Dynamic(2000, If self[Time-1]-(Acres_moved_to_adap1)<=0 then 0 else self[Time-1]-(Acres_moved_to_adap1))
NodeLocation: 832,560,1
NodeSize: 64,48
WindState: 2,1351,26,476,456
DefnState: 2,1456,49,416,303,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,46,298,863,427,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,2,MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Time,1,Adaptation,1]}
Chance Truncate_continuous_
Title: Truncate continuous yield
Units: bushel/acre
Description: The purpose of this node is to truncate the yield distribution at 0 since a negative yield cannot occur. This node represents the gradual shifting of the yield distribution under a drying climate. The yield shifts slightly to the left (lower yields) each year, which is forced by the "yield shift gradual climate" node.
Definition: Table(Time)(Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution_,0))
NodeLocation: 312,416,1
NodeSize: 64,48
WindState: 2,69,343,798,486
DefnState: 2,177,211,411,631,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,285,46,1584,707,1,MIDM
Aliases: Alias Truncate_spring_whe2, Alias Truncate_spring_whe1, Alias Truncate_spring_whe3
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
GraphSetup: {!40000|Att_GraphValueRange Truncate_continuous_:|1:1,,0,,,,,-5,70}~
{!40000|Att_GraphValueRange Graph_Pdf_Valdim:1,0,0,1,,,10,0,0.1}~
DistResol:100~
ProbIndex:[0.1 ,0.5 ,0.9 ]
ReformVal: [Time,Undefined,Undefined,0,1,0]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,2,MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Sys_LocalIndex('Probability'),1,Time,30]}
{!40200|Att_GraphSetupSlices: [3,1,DensityIndex,1]}
Alias Continuous_yield_di1
Title: Continuous yield distribution shifting climate
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 312,192,1
NodeSize: 72,48
NodeColor: 39321,39325,65535
Original: Continuous_Crop_yiel
Chance Normal_distribution_
Title: Normal distribution continuous yield
Description: Uses the shifted mean and shifted standard deviation to create a new yield distribution. This distribution represents the new yield acted on by climate change.
Definition: normal (Shifted_mean,shifted_standard_dev)
NodeLocation: 312,296,1
NodeSize: 48,40
ValueState: 2,977,519,890,538,0,MEAN
Aliases: Alias Normal_distribution6, Alias Normal_distribution2, Alias Normal_distribution5
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
ReformVal: [Undefined,Time,Undefined,Undefined,1]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [Time,3,Sys_LocalIndex('Step'),1]}
Chance Shifted_mean
Title: Shifted mean
Description: Outputs a new distribution forced by the "mean shift" node.
Definition: Continuous_Crop_yie1+Climate_scenario
NodeLocation: 176,296,1
NodeSize: 48,24
WindState: 2,765,4,476,224
DefnState: 2,45,416,416,303,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,1019,501,416,303,1,MIDM
Aliases: Alias Shifted_mean6, Alias Shifted_mean2, Alias Shifted_mean5
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
Chance shifted_standard_dev
Title: shifted standard deviation
Description: Result of the forcing of the "standard deviation shift" node on the standard deviation pulled from the continuous crop yield distribution. Used as an input to create a new yield distribution to simulate changes in climate.
Definition: Standard_deviation_o+Climate_variability_
NodeLocation: 456,296,1
NodeSize: 48,31
WindState: 2,130,223,476,224
DefnState: 2,740,78,385,773,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,132,139,751,569,1,MIDM
Aliases: Alias shifted_standard_de6, Alias shifted_standard_de2, Alias shifted_standard_de5
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
ReformVal: [Time,Undefined]
Alias Dist_Net_income_con5
Title: Dist Net income continuous
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 688,424,1
NodeSize: 48,48
NodeColor: 65535,62255,39321
Original: Dist_Net_income_cont
Variable Normalize_variable_f
Title: Normalize variable for net income continuous (rule of thumb)
Units: $
Description: takes acres planted continuously into account to determine what dollar amount to be used to normalize net income
Definition: Dist_Net_income_cont*(Adaptive_farmer_acre/2000)~
NodeLocation: 688,560,1
NodeSize: 48,56
WindState: 2,380,267,627,289
ValueState: 2,6,21,747,302,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 52427,60621,65535
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,2,MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Time,1,Adaptation,1]}
Alias Select_Climate_scen1
Title: Select Climate scenario
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 64,296,1
NodeSize: 48,32
Original: Climate_scenario
Close Continuous__module
Objective Failure_Outcome2
Title: Failure Outcome (rule of thumb)
Units: $
Description: FIf summed net income is less than "failure constant" node then you have a failure at that year, if not then inputs the amount of summed net income. This node is state which years failure occurs in a time serie
Definition: if Sum_of_NI< Failure_constant then 'failure' else Sum_of_NI
NodeLocation: 592,176,1
NodeSize: 48,40
WindState: 2,40,412,552,443
ValueState: 2,-196,137,1160,806,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,39321,39321
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Adaptation,2,Time,1,MSD_Event_series_Mea,1]}
Module adaptation_module
Title: adaptation module (rule of thumb)
Author: Administrator
Date: Thu, Jun 23, 2011 8:53 AM
DefaultSize: 48,24
NodeLocation: 472,176,1
NodeSize: 56,48
DiagState: 2,348,118,1095,676,17
NodeColor: 65535,39321,50245
Variable Acre_adaptation_nod1
Title: Acre adaptation node (rule of thumb)
Units: acres
Description: this node is triggered by the "extreme event failure" node. When the "extreme event failure" node reads "failure" this node takes a proportion of the total 2000 farmable acres (determined by the "Proportion of acres switched to fallow" node in the top module) and moves them into fallow cropping. The proportion is divided by 2 in the equation because only half of the acres moved into fallow are actually planted each year.
Definition: Dynamic(0, If Failure_Outcome2[Time-1] = "failure" then Farmable_acres*Proportion_of_acres else 0)
NodeLocation: 96,544,1
NodeSize: 48,48
WindState: 2,1047,485,544,389
DefnState: 2,286,679,691,303,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,1070,49,842,687,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,39321,50245
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time]
Variable Total_production3
Title: Total production (rule of thumb)
Units: BUSHEL
Description: Total amount of fallow crop harvested/year. Remember that only half of the acres moved to fallow is planted each year. The issue of planting 50% of the acres in fallow is taken care of in the "acres planted fallow" node.
Definition: Acres_planted_per_ad*Truncate_yield
NodeLocation: 336,416,1
NodeSize: 48,40
WindState: 2,645,542,476,224
ValueState: 2,206,319,706,608,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,39321,50245
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time,Undefined,Undefined,1]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,MSD_Event_series_Mea,2,Time,1,Adaptation,2]}
Variable Gross_received2
Title: Gross received (rule of thumb)
Units: $
Description: Total cash recieved (gross) for total fallow wheat productions. No costs have been subtracted in this node.
Definition: Total_production3*Market_Price_Dist
NodeLocation: 800,416,1
NodeSize: 48,40
ValueState: 2,48,248,528,642,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,39321,50245
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time,1,Undefined,1]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,2,MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Time,1,Adaptation,1]}
Variable Cost_to_plant2
Title: Cost to plant (rule of thumb)
Units: $
Description: Cost of the planted acres for fallow crop. takes amount planted (fallow) in acres times cost to plant.
Definition: Cost_to_plant_dist*Acres_planted_per_ad
NodeLocation: 640,544,1
NodeSize: 48,40
WindState: 2,868,530,476,224
ValueState: 2,424,19,600,653,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,39321,50245
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time,Undefined,Undefined,1]
{!40000|Att_GraphValueRange: |1:1,,,,,,10}
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,2,MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Time,1,Adaptation,1]}
{!40200|Att_GraphSetupSlices: [3,1,DensityIndex,1]}
Objective Normalized_NI
Title: Normalized NI (rule of thumb)
Units: $
Description: Distribution of net income for adaptation (total gross received-total cost to plant) over all fallow acres (planted and non-planted). Normalized from original data and therefor takes normalize variable into account.
Definition: Gross_received2-Total_cost1-Normalize_variable_N
NodeLocation: 800,664,1
NodeSize: 48,40
WindState: 2,621,48,476,224
ValueState: 2,0,152,1015,535,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,19661,38773
GraphSetup: {!40000|Att_GraphValueRange Normalized_NI:1,,0,,,,,-30K,0}
ReformVal: [Undefined,Time,Undefined,Undefined,1]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [Adaptation,2,Time,1]}
Variable Cost_of_unplanted_a2
Title: Cost of unplanted acres (rule of thumb)
Units: $
Description: This node accounts for the costs accrued for the unplanted acres for fallow cropping. total cost to leave x amount of acres unplanted for the year. The " Acres moved to fallow" node only outputs half of the acres moved. Therefore the "Acres planted fallow" node only accounts for half of the acres moved into fallow (because only half are planted). The acres that go unplanted still have a small maintanance cost per acre.
Definition: Acres_planted_per_ad*Cost_acre_of_unplant
NodeLocation: 336,664,1
NodeSize: 48,40
WindState: 2,330,306,476,224
ValueState: 2,216,219,670,564,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,39321,50245
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Adaptation,2,MSD_Event_series_Mea,1,Time,1]}
Variable Total_cost1
Title: Total cost (planted and unplanted) (rule of thumb)
Units: $
Description: total cost of fallow (all acres: planted and not planted).
Definition: Table(Adaptation)(Cost_to_plant2,(Cost_to_plant2+Cost_of_unplanted_a2),Cost_to_plant2,(Cost_to_plant2+Cost_of_unplanted_a2))
NodeLocation: 640,664,1
NodeSize: 48,56
WindState: 2,1235,546,476,224
DefnState: 2,139,343,700,303,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,70,4,493,847,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,39321,50245
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,MSD_Event_series_Mea,2,Adaptation,2,Time,1]}
Variable Acres_planted_adapta
Title: Acres planted adaptation (rule of thumb)
Units: acres
Description: acres actaully planted out of total acres. Sums "Acres moved to fallow" for each consecutive year. Once acres are put into fallow, the assumption is the farmer keeps them fallow and does not transition back into continuous.
Definition: Dynamic(Acres_moved_to_adap1,If Acres_moved_to_adap1+self[Time-1]>=2000 then 2000 else Acres_moved_to_adap1+self[Time-1] )
NodeLocation: 336,544,1
NodeSize: 48,48
WindState: 2,351,574,541,421
ValueState: 2,-162,87,659,744,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,39321,50245
GraphSetup: {!40000|Att_ContLineStyle Graph_Primary_Valdim:6}
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time]
Att__GraphPrintScali: 100,1,1,1,1,1,2794,2159,15,0
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Adaptation,2,Time,1,MSD_Event_series_Mea,2]}
Chance Truncate_yield
Title: Truncate yield (rule of thumb)
Units: bushel/acre
Description: The purpose of this node is to truncate the yield distribution at 0 since a negative yield cannot occur. This node represents the shifting of the yield distribution. The yield shifts slightly to the left (lower yields) each year, which is forced by the "yield shift gradual climate" node.
Definition: Table(Time)(~
Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0),Truncate(Normal_distribution1,0))
NodeLocation: 336,304,1
NodeSize: 64,48
WindState: 2,1090,439,476,224
DefnState: 2,1321,365,411,631,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,193,156,810,682,0,MIDM
Aliases: Alias Truncate_yield1, Alias Truncate_yield2
NodeColor: 65535,39321,50245
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time,1,Undefined,1]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,2,MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Time,8,Adaptation,1]}
Variable Acres_moved_to_adap1
Title: Acres moved to adaptation (rule of thumb)
Units: acres
Description: this tells the model how many acres to move to the adaptive method of farming. Each time there is a "failure" as defined by the "gradual shift failure node", the "Acres planted fallow shifting" node moves x amount of acres over to fallow. It is unrealistic to assume a farmer would move acres into fallow in consecutive years. Therefore this node forces one year of no adaptation before more acres can be moved from continuous to fallow.
Definition: Dynamic(Acre_adaptation_nod1, Acre_adaptation_nod1, If self[Time-2]=0 and Acre_adaptation_nod1 =Acre_adaptation_nod1[Time-1] then 0 else Acre_adaptation_nod1)
NodeLocation: 216,544,1
NodeSize: 48,48
WindState: 2,384,0,591,277
ValueState: 2,66,169,727,694,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,39321,50245
ReformVal: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,Time]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Adaptation,2,Time,1,MSD_Event_series_Mea,1]}
Alias Fallow_yield_distri2
Title: Fallow yield distribution shifting
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 344,56,1
NodeSize: 56,40
NodeColor: 39321,52431,65535
Original: Yield_normal_distrib
Alias Cost_acre_of_unplan5
Title: Cost/acre of unplanted land GC FOUR
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 336,792,1
NodeSize: 48,44
NodeColor: 39321,65535,58982
Original: Cost_acre_of_unplant
Chance Adaptive_crop_yield_
Title: Adaptive crop yield mean
Description: pulls the mean from the fallow crop yield distribution
Definition: mean(Yield_normal_distrib)
NodeLocation: 200,56,1
NodeSize: 48,32
WindState: 2,592,218,476,224
ValueState: 2,16,123,416,303,0,MIDM
Aliases: Alias Fallow_crop_yield_m3, Alias Fallow_crop_yield_m1
NodeColor: 65535,1,27310
Chance Standard_deviation_F
Title: Standard deviation Fallow crop yield
Description: pulls the standard deviation from the fallow crop yeild distribution
Definition: Sdeviation(Yield_normal_distrib)
NodeLocation: 504,56,1
NodeSize: 60,36
WindState: 2,362,296,476,224
ValueState: 2,16,523,416,303,0,MIDM
Aliases: Alias Standard_deviation_8, Alias Standard_deviation_9
NodeColor: 65535,1,27310
GraphSetup: StatsSelect:[1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0 ]
Chance Normal_distribution1
Title: Normal distribution Fallow yield shifted
Description: Uses the shifted mean and shifted standard deviation to create a new yield distribution. This distribution represents the new yield acted on by climate change.
Definition: normal (Shifted_mean1,shifted_standard_de1)
NodeLocation: 336,184,1
NodeSize: 48,40
ValueState: 2,16,101,890,538,1,MEAN
Aliases: Alias Normal_distribution4, Alias Normal_distribution3
NodeColor: 65535,1,27310
ReformVal: [Time,Adaptation,Undefined,Undefined,1]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,3,MSD_Event_series_Sta,3,Time,3,Adaptation,1]}
Chance Shifted_mean1
Title: Shifted mean
Description: Outputs a new distribution forced by the "mean shift" node.
Definition: Adaptive_crop_yield_+Relationship_between
NodeLocation: 200,184,1
NodeSize: 48,24
WindState: 2,98,83,476,224
ValueState: 2,90,48,750,661,1,MIDM
Aliases: Alias Shifted_mean4, Alias Shifted_mean3
NodeColor: 65535,1,27310
ReformVal: [Time,Adaptation]
Chance shifted_standard_de1
Title: shifted standard deviation
Description: Result of the forcing of the "standard deviation shift" node on the standard deviation pulled from the fallow crop yield distribution. Used as an input to create a new yield distribution to simulate changes in climate.
Definition: Standard_deviation_F+Climate_variability_
NodeLocation: 504,184,1
NodeSize: 48,31
WindState: 2,870,344,682,475
DefnState: 2,740,78,385,773,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,132,139,416,303,0,MIDM
Aliases: Alias shifted_standard_de4, Alias shifted_standard_de3
NodeColor: 65535,1,27310
Alias Net_income_fallow4
Title: Net income fallow
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 936,544,1
NodeSize: 48,40
NodeColor: 65535,62255,39321
Original: Net_income_adaptatio
Variable Normalize_variable_N
Title: Normalize variable NI (rule of thumb)
Description: takes acres planted fallow into account to determine what dollar amount to be used to normalize net income. don't need to divide by 2 because Aces_planted_fallow already takes it into account
Definition: Net_income_adaptatio*(Acres_planted_adapta/2000)
NodeLocation: 800,544,1
NodeSize: 48,40
WindState: 2,237,162,487,407
ValueState: 2,29,126,809,815,0,MIDM
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Adaptation,2,Time,1,MSD_Event_series_Mea,1]}
Alias Proportion_of_acres2
Title: Proportion of acres switched to fallow
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 96,408,1
NodeSize: 48,40
NodeColor: 65535,0,0
Original: Proportion_of_acres
Variable Acres_planted_per_ad
Title: Acres planted per adaptation (rule of thumb)
Definition: Table(Adaptation)(Acres_planted_adapta,Acres_planted_adapta/2,Acres_planted_adapta,Acres_planted_adapta/2)
NodeLocation: 488,544,1
NodeSize: 48,48
DefnState: 2,1405,619,416,303,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,-6,162,641,725,0,MIDM
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,2,MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Time,1,Adaptation,1]}
Alias Adaptation_mean_shi1
Title: Adaptation mean shift
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 72,184,1
NodeSize: 48,24
Original: Relationship_between
Alias Select_Climate_scen4
Title: Select Climate scenario
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 72,88,1
NodeSize: 48,32
Original: Climate_scenario
Close adaptation_module
Objective NI_Adaptive_Farmer4
Title: NI Adaptive Farmer (rule of thumb)
Units: $
Description: Net income for shifting climate module for both continuous and fallow. Adds net income from fallow and continuous farming for a given.
Definition: NI_adaptive_farmer5+Normalized_NI
NodeLocation: 472,312,1
NodeSize: 48,48
WindState: 2,1068,509,476,224
ValueState: 2,957,5,632,450,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,39321,39321
GraphSetup: {!40000|Att_ContLineStyle Graph_Primary_Valdim:6}
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time,Undefined,Undefined,1]
Variable Sum_of_NI
Title: Sum of NI (rule of thumb)
Units: $
Description: This node sums the net income each year (i.e. 1998=sum of net income for 1996, 97, & 98).
Definition: Dynamic(NI_Adaptive_Farmer4, NI_Adaptive_Farmer4+self[Time-1])
NodeLocation: 592,312,1
NodeSize: 48,40
WindState: 2,1359,617,476,224
DefnState: 2,1033,602,416,303,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,1157,284,486,619,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,39321,39321
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time,Undefined,Undefined,1]
Constant Failure_constant
Title: Failure constant (rule of thumb)
Units: $
Description: the number used to determine if "failure" occurrs in "Failure Outcome" node. Change if you want manipulate threshold for adaptation..
Definition: -50K
NodeLocation: 592,64,1
NodeSize: 48,40
WindState: 2,377,239,476,224
Aliases: FormNode MSD_Failure_constan1
NodeColor: 65535,39321,39321
Variable Total_production_Ada
Title: Total production Adaptive vs non-adaptive (rule of thumb)
Units: bushels
Description: this node sums production from fallow and continuous to observe total production change over time.
Definition: [Adaptive_farmer_tota+Total_production3,Non_adaptive_farmer_]
NodeLocation: 472,760,1
NodeSize: 48,64
WindState: 2,613,298,507,349
ValueState: 2,0,0,589,357,1,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,39321,39321
GraphSetup: {!40000|Att_ContLineStyle Graph_Primary_Valdim:6}
ReformVal: [Time,Self]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [Self,2,Time,1]}
Objective NPV_Adaptive_farmer1
Title: NPV Adaptive farmer (rule of thumb)
Units: $
Definition: NPV(3%,NI_Adaptive_Farmer4,Time,0)
NodeLocation: 336,312,1
NodeSize: 48,40
NodeColor: 65535,39321,39321
Variable Compare_NPV_adaptive
Title: Compare NPV adaptive and non-adaptive farmers
Units: $
Definition: [NPV_Adaptive_farmer1,NPV_Adaptive_farmer2,NPV_Adaptive_farmer_,NPV_NON_adaptvie_far]
NodeLocation: 88,312,1
NodeSize: 48,56
ValueState: 2,494,222,1352,440,0,MIDM
Aliases: FormNode Compare_NPV1
NodeColor: 65535,1,1
ReformVal: [Adaptation,MSD_Event_series_Mea]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Self,3,MSD_Event_series_Mea,1,Adaptation,2]}
Module Continuous_module
Title: Continuous module (NI threshold)
Author: Administrator
Date: Thu, Jun 23, 2011 8:53 AM
DefaultSize: 48,24
NodeLocation: 856,472,1
NodeSize: 56,40
DiagState: 2,352,22,1074,768,17
NodeColor: 32768,32768,32768
Att__DiagramPrintSca: 75,1,1,1,2,1,2794,2159,15,0
Variable Adaptive_farmer__cos
Title: Adaptive farmer cost (NI threshold)
Units: $
Description: Total cost to plant continuous crop. takes amount planted (continuous) in acres times cost to plant . Takes into account adaptation (acres moved into fallow cropping).
Definition: Cost_to_plant_non_a2*Adaptive_farmer_acr1
NodeLocation: 656,648,1
NodeSize: 48,40
WindState: 2,692,544,476,224
ValueState: 2,1327,7,608,466,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time,Undefined,Undefined,1]
Variable Adaptive_farmer_tot1
Title: Adaptive farmer total production (NI threshold)
Units: bushel
Description: Total amount of crop harvested/year. This node is represented as distributions influenced negatively for crop production. This node uses the "Adaptive farmer acres planted cont crop" NODE which takes the number of acres moved into fallow farming into account.
Definition: Adaptive_farmer_acr1*Truncate_continuous_
NodeLocation: 336,424,1
NodeSize: 48,48
WindState: 2,634,385,530,514
ValueState: 2,1393,249,631,564,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time,Undefined,Undefined,0]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [Sys_LocalIndex('Possible_Values'),23,Time,1]}
Variable Adaptive_farmer_gro1
Title: Adaptive farmer gross income (NI threshold)
Units: $
Description: the distribution recieved (gross) for total continuous wheat productions under various conditions. No costs have been subtracted in this node. Takes into account adaptation (acres moved into fallow cropping). GC=gradual shift
Definition: Adaptive_farmer_tot1*Market_Price_non_ad1
NodeLocation: 336,648,1
NodeSize: 48,56
WindState: 2,390,197,476,224
ValueState: 2,3,258,861,530,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time,Undefined,Undefined,1]
Objective NormalizedNI_adaptiv
Title: NormalizedNI adaptive farmer (NI threshold)
Units: $
Description: Distribution of net income for continuous crop (total gross received-total cost to plant) over all continuous acres planted for each year. Takes into account adaptation (acres moved into fallow cropping). Is normalized by "Normalized net income proportion continuous" node.
Definition: NI_adaptive_farmer_c-Normalize_variable_1
NodeLocation: 496,536,1
NodeSize: 48,48
WindState: 2,1371,105,481,467
ValueState: 2,1278,193,610,712,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
GraphSetup: Grid:1~
{!40000|Graph_LineThickness:3}~
{!40000|Att_Stacked_Lines Graph_Pdf_Valdim:0}
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time,Undefined,1,1]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [Sys_LocalIndex('Statistics'),6,Drought_severity_ind,1]}
Variable Adaptive_farmer_acr1
Title: Adaptive farmer acres planted spring wheat (NI threshold)
Units: acres
Description: number of acres that are planted as continious crop based on "acres moved to fallow". The total number of acres possible to plant is 2000.
Definition: Dynamic(2000, If self[Time-1]-(Acres_moved_to_adap2)<=0 then 0 else self[Time-1]-(Acres_moved_to_adap2))
NodeLocation: 656,424,1
NodeSize: 64,48
WindState: 2,1351,26,476,456
DefnState: 2,1456,49,416,303,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,2,617,863,278,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,2,MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Time,1,Adaptation,1]}
Alias Dist_Net_income_con1
Title: Dist Net income continuous
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 496,296,1
NodeSize: 48,48
NodeColor: 65535,62255,39321
Original: Dist_Net_income_cont
Variable Normalize_variable_1
Title: Normalize variable for NI (NI threshold)
Units: $
Description: takes acres planted continuously into account to determine what dollar amount to be used to normalize net income
Definition: Dist_Net_income_cont*(Adaptive_farmer_acr1/2000)~
NodeLocation: 496,424,1
NodeSize: 48,48
WindState: 2,380,267,627,289
ValueState: 2,6,21,719,741,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 52427,60621,65535
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,2,MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Time,1,Adaptation,1]}
Objective NI_adaptive_farmer_c
Title: NI adaptive farmer cont portion (NI threshold)
Units: $
Description: Distribution of net income for continuous crop (total gross received-total cost to plant) over all continuous acres planted for each year for the adaptive farmer. Takes into account adaptation (acres moved into fallow cropping).
Definition: Adaptive_farmer_gro1-Adaptive_farmer__cos
NodeLocation: 496,648,1
NodeSize: 48,48
WindState: 2,1371,105,481,467
ValueState: 2,1278,193,610,712,0,MIDM
Aliases: Alias Net_income_adaptive1
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
GraphSetup: Grid:1~
{!40000|Graph_LineThickness:3}~
{!40000|Att_Stacked_Lines Graph_Pdf_Valdim:0}
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time,Undefined,1,1]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [Sys_LocalIndex('Statistics'),6,Drought_severity_ind,1]}
Alias Continuous_Crop_yie3
Title: Continuous Crop yield mean
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 200,60,1
NodeSize: 48,31
NodeColor: 65535,65531,1
Original: Continuous_Crop_yie1
Alias Standard_deviation12
Title: Standard deviation of Cont crop yield
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 480,60,1
NodeSize: 60,36
NodeColor: 65535,65531,1
Original: Standard_deviation_o
Alias Continuous_Crop_yie6
Title: Continuous Crop yield normal distribution
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 344,64,1
NodeSize: 72,56
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
NodeColor: 65535,65531,1
Original: Continuous_Crop_yiel
Alias Normal_distribution6
Title: Normal distribution continuous yield
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 336,164,1
NodeSize: 48,40
NodeColor: 65535,65531,1
Original: Normal_distribution_
Alias Shifted_mean6
Title: Shifted mean
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 200,164,1
NodeSize: 48,24
NodeColor: 65535,65531,1
Original: Shifted_mean
Alias shifted_standard_de6
Title: shifted standard deviation
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 480,164,1
NodeSize: 48,31
NodeColor: 65535,65531,1
Original: shifted_standard_dev
Alias Truncate_spring_whe2
Title: Truncate spring wheat yield (rule of thumb)
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 336,296,1
NodeSize: 64,48
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
Original: Truncate_continuous_
Alias Select_Climate_scen2
Title: Select Climate scenario
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 72,160,1
NodeSize: 48,32
Original: Climate_scenario
Close Continuous_module
Objective Failure_Outcome1
Title: Failure Outcome (NI threshold)
Units: $
Description: FIf summed net income is less than "failure constant" node then you have a failure at that year, if not then inputs the amount of summed net income. This node is state which years failure occurs in a time serie
Definition: if A50th___of_NI_adapti< A25th___of__NI_origi then 'failure' else A50th___of_NI_adapti
NodeLocation: 1096,176,1
NodeSize: 48,40
WindState: 2,40,412,552,443
ValueState: 2,303,97,807,806,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 62258,62258,62258
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,MSD_Event_series_Mea,2,Time,1,Adaptation,1]}
Module Adaptation_module1
Title: Adaptation module (NI threshold)
Author: Administrator
Date: Thu, Jun 23, 2011 8:53 AM
DefaultSize: 48,24
NodeLocation: 856,176,1
NodeSize: 56,48
DiagState: 2,-188,100,1102,799,17
NodeColor: 52428,52428,52428
Variable Acre_adaptation_nod2
Title: Acre adaptation node (NI threshold)
Units: acres
Description: this node is triggered by the "extreme event failure" node. When the "extreme event failure" node reads "failure" this node takes a proportion of the total 2000 farmable acres (determined by the "Proportion of acres switched to fallow" node in the top module) and moves them into fallow cropping. The proportion is divided by 2 in the equation because only half of the acres moved into fallow are actually planted each year.
Definition: Dynamic(0, If Failure_Outcome1[Time-1] = "failure" then Farmable_acres*Proportion_of_acres else 0)
NodeLocation: 104,552,1
NodeSize: 48,48
WindState: 2,1047,485,544,389
DefnState: 2,286,679,691,303,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,1070,49,842,687,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,39321,50245
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time]
Variable Total_production2
Title: Total production (NI threshold)
Units: BUSHEL
Description: Total amount of fallow crop harvested/year. Remember that only half of the acres moved to fallow is planted each year. The issue of planting 50% of the acres in fallow is taken care of in the "acres planted fallow" node.
Definition: Acres_planted_per_a2*Truncate_yield
NodeLocation: 344,424,1
NodeSize: 48,40
WindState: 2,645,542,476,224
ValueState: 2,206,319,706,608,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,39321,50245
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time,Undefined,Undefined,1]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,MSD_Event_series_Mea,2,Time,1,Adaptation,2]}
Variable Gross_received1
Title: Gross received (NI threshold)
Units: $
Description: Total cash recieved (gross) for total fallow wheat productions. No costs have been subtracted in this node.
Definition: Total_production2*Market_Price_Dist
NodeLocation: 808,424,1
NodeSize: 48,40
ValueState: 2,48,248,528,642,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,39321,50245
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time,1,Undefined,1]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,2,MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Time,1,Adaptation,1]}
Variable Cost_to_plant_adapt1
Title: Cost to plant adaptation (NI threshold)
Units: $
Description: Cost of the planted acres for fallow crop. takes amount planted (fallow) in acres times cost to plant.
Definition: Cost_to_plant_dist*Acres_planted_per_a2
NodeLocation: 648,552,1
NodeSize: 48,48
WindState: 2,868,530,476,224
ValueState: 2,424,19,600,653,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,39321,50245
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time,Undefined,Undefined,1]
{!40000|Att_GraphValueRange: |1:1,,,,,,10}
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,2,MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Time,1,Adaptation,1]}
{!40200|Att_GraphSetupSlices: [3,1,DensityIndex,1]}
Objective Normalized_NI_adapt1
Title: Normalized NI adaptation (NI threshold)
Units: $
Description: Distribution of net income for adaptation (total gross received-total cost to plant) over all fallow acres (planted and non-planted). Normalized from original data and therefor takes normalize variable into account.
Definition: NI_Adaptive_farmer8-Normalize_variable_6
NodeLocation: 832,664,1
NodeSize: 48,48
WindState: 2,621,48,476,224
ValueState: 2,0,152,1015,535,1,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,19661,38773
ReformVal: [Time,Adaptation,Undefined,Undefined,1]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Adaptation,2,Time,8,MSD_Event_series_Mea,1]}
Variable Cost_of_unplanted_a1
Title: Cost of unplanted acres (NI threshold)
Units: $
Description: This node accounts for the costs accrued for the unplanted acres for fallow cropping. total cost to leave x amount of acres unplanted for the year. The " Acres moved to fallow" node only outputs half of the acres moved. Therefore the "Acres planted fallow" node only accounts for half of the acres moved into fallow (because only half are planted). The acres that go unplanted still have a small maintanance cost per acre.
Definition: Acres_planted_per_a2*Cost_acre_of_unplant
NodeLocation: 344,672,1
NodeSize: 48,40
WindState: 2,330,306,476,224
ValueState: 2,216,219,670,564,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,39321,50245
ReformVal: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,Time]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Adaptation,2,MSD_Event_series_Mea,1,Time,1]}
Variable Total_cost
Title: Total cost (planted and unplanted) (NI threshold)
Units: $
Description: total cost of fallow (all acres: planted and not planted).
Definition: Table(Adaptation)(Cost_to_plant_adapt1,(Cost_to_plant_adapt1+Cost_of_unplanted_a1),Cost_to_plant_adapt1,(Cost_to_plant_adapt1+Cost_of_unplanted_a1))
NodeLocation: 648,672,1
NodeSize: 48,56
WindState: 2,1235,546,476,224
DefnState: 2,139,343,700,303,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,70,4,493,847,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,39321,50245
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,MSD_Event_series_Mea,2,Adaptation,2,Time,1]}
Variable Acres_planted_adapt2
Title: Acres planted adaptation (NI threshold)
Units: acres
Description: acres actaully planted out of total acres. Sums "Acres moved to fallow" for each consecutive year. Once acres are put into fallow, the assumption is the farmer keeps them fallow and does not transition back into continuous.
Definition: Dynamic(Acres_moved_to_adap2,If Acres_moved_to_adap2+self[Time-1]>=2000 then 2000 else Acres_moved_to_adap2+self[Time-1] )
NodeLocation: 344,552,1
NodeSize: 48,48
WindState: 2,351,574,541,421
ValueState: 2,-162,87,659,744,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,39321,50245
GraphSetup: {!40000|Att_ContLineStyle Graph_Primary_Valdim:6}
ReformVal: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,Time]
Att__GraphPrintScali: 100,1,1,1,1,1,2794,2159,15,0
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Adaptation,2,Time,1,MSD_Event_series_Mea,2]}
Variable Acres_moved_to_adap2
Title: Acres moved to adaptation (NI threshold)
Units: acres
Description: this tells the model how many acres to move to the adaptive method of farming. Each time there is a "failure" as defined by the "gradual shift failure node", the "Acres planted fallow shifting" node moves x amount of acres over to fallow. It is unrealistic to assume a farmer would move acres into fallow in consecutive years. Therefore this node forces one year of no adaptation before more acres can be moved from continuous to fallow.
Definition: Dynamic(Acre_adaptation_nod2, Acre_adaptation_nod2, If self[Time-2]=0 and Acre_adaptation_nod2 =Acre_adaptation_nod2[Time-1] then 0 else Acre_adaptation_nod2)
NodeLocation: 224,552,1
NodeSize: 48,48
WindState: 2,384,0,591,277
ValueState: 2,66,169,727,694,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,39321,50245
ReformVal: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,Time]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Adaptation,2,Time,1,MSD_Event_series_Mea,1]}
Alias Cost_acre_of_unplan1
Title: Cost/acre of unplanted land GC FOUR
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 344,800,1
NodeSize: 48,44
NodeColor: 39321,65535,58982
Original: Cost_acre_of_unplant
Alias Net_income_fallow1
Title: Net income fallow
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 944,552,1
NodeSize: 48,40
NodeColor: 65535,62255,39321
Original: Net_income_adaptatio
Variable Normalize_variable_6
Title: Normalize variable for NI adaptation (NI threshold)
Description: takes acres planted fallow into account to determine what dollar amount to be used to normalize net income. don't need to divide by 2 because Aces_planted_fallow already takes it into account
Definition: Net_income_adaptatio*(Acres_planted_adapt2/2000)
NodeLocation: 808,552,1
NodeSize: 48,56
WindState: 2,237,162,487,407
ValueState: 2,29,126,809,815,0,MIDM
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Adaptation,2,Time,1,MSD_Event_series_Mea,1]}
Alias Proportion_of_acres3
Title: Proportion of acres switched to fallow
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 104,416,1
NodeSize: 48,40
NodeColor: 65535,0,0
Original: Proportion_of_acres
Variable Acres_planted_per_a2
Title: Acres planted per adaptation (NI threshold)
Definition: Table(Adaptation)(Acres_planted_adapt2,Acres_planted_adapt2/2,Acres_planted_adapt2,Acres_planted_adapt2/2)
NodeLocation: 496,552,1
NodeSize: 48,48
DefnState: 2,1405,619,416,303,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,-6,162,641,725,0,MIDM
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,2,MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Time,1,Adaptation,1]}
Objective NI_Adaptive_farmer8
Title: NI Adaptive farmer (NI threshold)
Units: $
Description: Distribution of net income for adaptation (total gross received-total cost to plant) over all fallow acres (planted and non-planted).
Definition: Gross_received1-Total_cost
NodeLocation: 952,736,1
NodeSize: 48,40
WindState: 2,621,48,559,344
ValueState: 2,0,152,1015,535,1,MIDM
Aliases: Alias Fallow_Net_income1
NodeColor: 65535,19661,38773
ReformVal: [Time,MSD_Event_series_Mea,Undefined,Undefined,1]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Adaptation,2,Time,8,MSD_Event_series_Mea,1]}
Alias Yield_normal_distri1
Title: Yield normal distribution
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 352,72,1
NodeSize: 56,40
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
NodeColor: 65535,65531,39321
Original: Yield_normal_distrib
Alias Fallow_crop_yield_m3
Title: Fallow crop yield mean
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 216,72,1
NodeSize: 48,31
NodeColor: 65535,65531,39321
Original: Adaptive_crop_yield_
Alias Standard_deviation_8
Title: Standard deviation Fallow crop yield
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 504,72,1
NodeSize: 60,36
NodeColor: 65535,65531,39321
Original: Standard_deviation_F
Alias Normal_distribution4
Title: Normal distribution Fallow yield shifted
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 344,192,1
NodeSize: 48,40
NodeColor: 65535,65531,39321
Original: Normal_distribution1
Alias Shifted_mean4
Title: Shifted mean
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 216,192,1
NodeSize: 48,24
NodeColor: 65535,65531,39321
Original: Shifted_mean1
Alias shifted_standard_de4
Title: shifted standard deviation
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 504,192,1
NodeSize: 48,31
NodeColor: 65535,65531,39321
Original: shifted_standard_de1
Alias Adaptation_mean_shi2
Title: Adaptation mean shift
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 80,192,1
NodeSize: 48,32
NodeColor: 65535,65531,39321
Original: Relationship_between
Alias Truncate_yield1
Title: Truncate yield (rule of thumb)
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 344,312,1
NodeSize: 64,48
NodeColor: 65535,39321,50245
Original: Truncate_yield
Alias Select_Climate_scen5
Title: Select Climate scenario
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 80,96,1
NodeSize: 48,32
Original: Climate_scenario
Close Adaptation_module1
Objective NI_Adaptive_Farmer
Title: NI Adaptive Farmer (NI threshold)
Units: $
Description: Net income for shifting climate module for both continuous and fallow. Adds net income from fallow and continuous farming for a given.
Definition: NormalizedNI_adaptiv+Normalized_NI_adapt1
NodeLocation: 856,312,1
NodeSize: 48,48
WindState: 2,1068,509,476,224
ValueState: 2,81,497,632,450,1,CONF
NodeColor: 62258,62258,62258
GraphSetup: {!40000|Att_ContLineStyle Graph_Primary_Valdim:6}
ReformVal: [Time,Time,2,Undefined,1]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,2,MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Adaptation,1,Sys_LocalIndex('Probability'),1,Time,1]}
Variable Sum_of_NI1
Title: Sum of NI (NI threshold)
Units: $
Description: This node sums the net income each year (i.e. 1998=sum of net income for 1996, 97, & 98).
Definition: Dynamic(NI_Adaptive_Farmer, NI_Adaptive_Farmer+self[Time-1])
NodeLocation: 976,312,1
NodeSize: 48,40
WindState: 2,1359,617,476,224
DefnState: 2,1033,602,416,303,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,1157,284,486,619,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 62258,62258,62258
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time,Undefined,Undefined,1]
Variable Total_production_Ad4
Title: Total production Adaptive vs non-adaptive (NI threshold)
Units: bushels
Description: this node sums production from fallow and continuous to observe total production change over time.
Definition: [(Adaptive_farmer_tot1+Total_production2),Non_adaptive_farmer_]
NodeLocation: 856,760,1
NodeSize: 48,64
WindState: 2,613,298,507,349
ValueState: 2,0,0,589,357,1,MIDM
NodeColor: 62258,62258,62258
GraphSetup: {!40000|Att_ContLineStyle Graph_Primary_Valdim:6}
ReformVal: [Time,Self]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [Self,2,Time,1]}
Objective NPV_Adaptive_farmer2
Title: NPV Adaptive farmer (NI threshold)
Units: $
Definition: NPV(3%,NI_Adaptive_Farmer,Time,0)
NodeLocation: 728,312,1
NodeSize: 48,40
NodeColor: 62258,62258,62258
Variable Compare_adaptive_v_4
Title: Compare adaptive v non adaptive NPV (NI threshold)
Definition: [NPV_Adaptive_farmer2,NPV_NON_adaptvie_far]
NodeLocation: 728,472,1
NodeSize: 48,56
ValueState: 2,718,248,416,303,1,MIDM
NodeColor: 62258,62258,62258
ReformVal: [Self,MSD_Event_series_Mea]
Variable A25th___of__NI_origi
Title: 25th % of NI original data
Definition: GetFract(Dist_Net_income_cont, 0.25)
NodeLocation: 1096,280,1
NodeSize: 48,40
ValueState: 2,1086,244,403,303,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 62258,62258,62258
Alias Net_income_adaptive1
Title: Net income adaptive farmer cont crop MSD ONE
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 984,472,1
NodeSize: 48,48
NodeColor: 62258,62258,62258
Original: NI_adaptive_farmer_c
Alias Fallow_Net_income1
Title: Fallow Net income
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 984,176,1
NodeSize: 48,40
NodeColor: 62258,62258,62258
Original: NI_Adaptive_farmer8
Objective NI_adaptive_farmer_N
Title: NI adaptive farmer NOT normalized
Definition: NI_adaptive_farmer_c+NI_Adaptive_farmer8
NodeLocation: 984,64,1
NodeSize: 48,32
ValueState: 2,825,159,1070,739,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 62258,62258,62258
ReformVal: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,Time]
Variable A50th___of_NI_adapti
Title: 50th % of NI adaptive farmer (NI threshold)
Definition: getfract(NI_adaptive_farmer_N, 0.5)
NodeLocation: 1096,64,1
NodeSize: 48,40
ValueState: 2,16,122,1152,783,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 62258,62258,62258
ReformVal: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,Time]
Module Continuous__module1
Title: Continuous module (yield threshold)
Author: Administrator
Date: Thu, Jun 23, 2011 8:53 AM
DefaultSize: 48,24
NodeLocation: 1368,472,1
NodeSize: 56,40
DiagState: 2,333,6,1074,851,17
NodeColor: 19661,42599,65535
Att__DiagramPrintSca: 75,1,1,1,2,1,2794,2159,15,0
Variable Adaptive_farmer_cos1
Title: Adaptive farmer cost (yield threshold)
Units: $
Description: Total cost to plant continuous crop. takes amount planted (continuous) in acres times cost to plant . Takes into account adaptation (acres moved into fallow cropping).
Definition: Cost_to_plant_non_a2*Adaptive_farmer__acr
NodeLocation: 664,800,1
NodeSize: 48,40
WindState: 2,692,544,476,224
ValueState: 2,1327,7,608,466,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time,Undefined,Undefined,1]
Variable Adaptive_farmer__tot
Title: Adaptive farmer total production (yield threshold)
Units: bushel
Description: Total amount of crop harvested/year. This node is represented as distributions influenced negatively for crop production. This node uses the "Adaptive farmer acres planted cont crop" NODE which takes the number of acres moved into fallow farming into account.
Definition: Adaptive_farmer__acr*Truncate_continuous_
NodeLocation: 328,576,1
NodeSize: 48,48
WindState: 2,87,447,530,514
ValueState: 2,1393,249,631,564,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time,Undefined,Undefined,0]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [Sys_LocalIndex('Possible_Values'),23,Time,1]}
Variable Adaptive_farmer_gro2
Title: Adaptive farmer gross income (yield threshold)
Units: $
Description: the distribution recieved (gross) for total continuous wheat productions under various conditions. No costs have been subtracted in this node. Takes into account adaptation (acres moved into fallow cropping). GC=gradual shift
Definition: Adaptive_farmer__tot*Market_Price_non_ad1
NodeLocation: 328,800,1
NodeSize: 48,56
WindState: 2,390,197,476,224
ValueState: 2,3,258,861,530,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time,Undefined,Undefined,1]
Objective Normalized_NI_adapti
Title: Normalized NI adaptive farmer (yield threshold)
Units: $
Description: Distribution of net income for continuous crop (total gross received-total cost to plant) over all continuous acres planted for each year. Takes into account adaptation (acres moved into fallow cropping). Is normalized by "Normalized net income proportion continuous" node.
Definition: NI_adaptive_farmer7-Normalize_variable_3
NodeLocation: 504,688,1
NodeSize: 48,48
WindState: 2,1371,105,481,467
ValueState: 2,1278,193,610,712,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
GraphSetup: Grid:1~
{!40000|Graph_LineThickness:3}~
{!40000|Att_Stacked_Lines Graph_Pdf_Valdim:0}
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time,Undefined,1,1]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [Sys_LocalIndex('Statistics'),6,Drought_severity_ind,1]}
Variable Adaptive_farmer__acr
Title: Adaptive farmer acres planted spring wheat (yield threshold)
Units: acres
Description: number of acres that are planted as continious crop based on "acres moved to fallow". The total number of acres possible to plant is 2000.
Definition: Dynamic(2000, If self[Time-1]-(Acres_moved_to_adapt)<=0 then 0 else self[Time-1]-(Acres_moved_to_adapt))
NodeLocation: 664,576,1
NodeSize: 64,48
WindState: 2,1351,26,476,456
DefnState: 2,1456,49,416,303,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,2,617,863,278,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,2,MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Time,1,Adaptation,1]}
Alias Dist_Net_income_con3
Title: Dist Net income continuous
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 504,448,1
NodeSize: 48,48
NodeColor: 65535,62255,39321
Original: Dist_Net_income_cont
Variable Normalize_variable_3
Title: Normalize variable for NI (yield threshold)
Units: $
Description: takes acres planted continuously into account to determine what dollar amount to be used to normalize net income
Definition: Dist_Net_income_cont*(Adaptive_farmer__acr/2000)~
NodeLocation: 504,576,1
NodeSize: 48,48
WindState: 2,380,267,627,289
ValueState: 2,6,21,719,741,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 52427,60621,65535
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,2,MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Time,1,Adaptation,1]}
Objective NI_adaptive_farmer7
Title: NI adaptive farmer (yield threshold)
Units: $
Description: Distribution of net income for continuous crop (total gross received-total cost to plant) over all continuous acres planted for each year. Takes into account adaptation (acres moved into fallow cropping).
Definition: Adaptive_farmer_gro2-Adaptive_farmer_cos1
NodeLocation: 504,800,1
NodeSize: 48,48
WindState: 2,1371,105,481,467
ValueState: 2,1278,193,610,712,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
GraphSetup: Grid:1~
{!40000|Graph_LineThickness:3}~
{!40000|Att_Stacked_Lines Graph_Pdf_Valdim:0}
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time,Undefined,1,1]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [Sys_LocalIndex('Statistics'),6,Drought_severity_ind,1]}
Alias Continuous_Crop_yie2
Title: Continuous Crop yield mean
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 200,184,1
NodeSize: 48,31
NodeColor: 65535,65531,1
Original: Continuous_Crop_yie1
Alias Standard_deviation_4
Title: Standard deviation of Cont crop yield
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 480,184,1
NodeSize: 60,36
NodeColor: 65535,65531,1
Original: Standard_deviation_o
Alias Continuous_Crop_yie7
Title: Continuous Crop yield normal distribution
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 320,184,1
NodeSize: 56,40
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
NodeColor: 65535,65531,1
Original: Continuous_Crop_yiel
Alias Normal_distribution2
Title: Normal distribution continuous yield
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 328,304,1
NodeSize: 48,40
NodeColor: 65535,65531,1
Original: Normal_distribution_
Alias Shifted_mean2
Title: Shifted mean
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 200,304,1
NodeSize: 48,24
NodeColor: 65535,65531,1
Original: Shifted_mean
Alias shifted_standard_de2
Title: shifted standard deviation
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 480,304,1
NodeSize: 48,31
NodeColor: 65535,65531,1
Original: shifted_standard_dev
Alias Truncate_spring_whe1
Title: Truncate spring wheat yield (rule of thumb)
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 328,432,1
NodeSize: 64,48
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
Original: Truncate_continuous_
Alias Select_Climate_scen3
Title: Select Climate scenario
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 72,304,1
NodeSize: 48,32
Original: Climate_scenario
Close Continuous__module1
Objective Failure_Outcome
Title: Failure Outcome (yield threshold)
Units: $
Description: FIf summed net income is less than "failure constant" node then you have a failure at that year, if not then inputs the amount of summed net income. This node is state which years failure occurs in a time serie
Definition: if A50th_percentile_of_< A25th_percentile_of3 then 'failure' else A50th_percentile_of_
NodeLocation: 1512,176,1
NodeSize: 48,40
WindState: 2,40,412,552,443
ValueState: 2,303,97,807,806,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 52427,58983,65535
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,MSD_Event_series_Mea,2,Time,1,Adaptation,1]}
Module Adaptation_module2
Title: Adaptation module (yield threshold)
Author: Administrator
Date: Thu, Jun 23, 2011 8:53 AM
DefaultSize: 48,24
NodeLocation: 1368,176,1
NodeSize: 56,48
DiagState: 2,100,41,1163,811,17
NodeColor: 39321,52431,65535
Variable Acre_adaptation_node
Title: Acre adaptation node (yield threshold)
Units: acres
Description: this node is triggered by the "extreme event failure" node. When the "extreme event failure" node reads "failure" this node takes a proportion of the total 2000 farmable acres (determined by the "Proportion of acres switched to fallow" node in the top module) and moves them into fallow cropping. The proportion is divided by 2 in the equation because only half of the acres moved into fallow are actually planted each year.
Definition: Dynamic(0, If Failure_Outcome[Time-1] = "failure" then Farmable_acres*Proportion_of_acres else 0)
NodeLocation: 112,560,1
NodeSize: 48,48
WindState: 2,1047,485,544,389
DefnState: 2,286,679,691,303,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,1070,49,842,687,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,39321,50245
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time]
Variable Total_production1
Title: Total production (yield threshold)
Units: BUSHEL
Description: Total amount of fallow crop harvested/year. Remember that only half of the acres moved to fallow is planted each year. The issue of planting 50% of the acres in fallow is taken care of in the "acres planted fallow" node.
Definition: Acres_planted_per_a3*Truncate_yield
NodeLocation: 352,432,1
NodeSize: 48,40
WindState: 2,645,542,476,224
ValueState: 2,206,319,706,608,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,39321,50245
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time,Undefined,Undefined,1]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,MSD_Event_series_Mea,2,Time,1,Adaptation,2]}
Variable Gross_received
Title: Gross received (yield threshold)
Units: $
Description: Total cash recieved (gross) for total fallow wheat productions. No costs have been subtracted in this node.
Definition: Total_production1*Market_Price_Dist
NodeLocation: 816,432,1
NodeSize: 48,40
ValueState: 2,48,248,528,642,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,39321,50245
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time,1,Undefined,1]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,2,MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Time,1,Adaptation,1]}
Variable Cost_to_plant_adapta
Title: Cost to plant adaptation (yield threshold)
Units: $
Description: Cost of the planted acres for fallow crop. takes amount planted (fallow) in acres times cost to plant.
Definition: Cost_to_plant_dist*Acres_planted_per_a3
NodeLocation: 656,560,1
NodeSize: 48,48
WindState: 2,868,530,476,224
ValueState: 2,424,19,600,653,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,39321,50245
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time,Undefined,Undefined,1]
{!40000|Att_GraphValueRange: |1:1,,,,,,10}
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,2,MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Time,1,Adaptation,1]}
{!40200|Att_GraphSetupSlices: [3,1,DensityIndex,1]}
Objective Normalized_NI_adapta
Title: Normalized NI adaptation (yield threshold)
Units: $
Description: Distribution of net income for adaptation (total gross received-total cost to plant) over all fallow acres (planted and non-planted). Normalized from original data and therefor takes normalize variable into account.
Definition: Adaptation_NI_not_no-Normalize_variable_5
NodeLocation: 840,672,1
NodeSize: 48,48
WindState: 2,621,48,476,224
ValueState: 2,0,152,1015,535,1,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,19661,38773
ReformVal: [Time,MSD_Event_series_Mea,Undefined,Undefined,1]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Adaptation,2,Time,8,MSD_Event_series_Mea,1]}
Variable Cost_of_unplanted_ac
Title: Cost of unplanted acres (yield threshold)
Units: $
Description: This node accounts for the costs accrued for the unplanted acres for fallow cropping. total cost to leave x amount of acres unplanted for the year. The " Acres moved to fallow" node only outputs half of the acres moved. Therefore the "Acres planted fallow" node only accounts for half of the acres moved into fallow (because only half are planted). The acres that go unplanted still have a small maintanance cost per acre.
Definition: Acres_planted_per_a3*Cost_acre_of_unplant
NodeLocation: 352,680,1
NodeSize: 48,40
WindState: 2,330,306,476,224
ValueState: 2,216,219,670,564,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,39321,50245
ReformVal: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,Time]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Adaptation,2,MSD_Event_series_Mea,1,Time,1]}
Variable Total_cost_of_adapta
Title: Total cost of adaptation (planted and unplanted) (yield threshold)
Units: $
Description: total cost of fallow (all acres: planted and not planted).
Definition: Table(Adaptation)(Cost_to_plant_adapta,(Cost_to_plant_adapta+Cost_of_unplanted_ac),Cost_to_plant_adapta,(Cost_to_plant_adapta+Cost_of_unplanted_ac))
NodeLocation: 656,680,1
NodeSize: 48,80
WindState: 2,1235,546,476,224
DefnState: 2,139,343,700,303,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,70,4,493,847,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,39321,50245
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,MSD_Event_series_Mea,2,Adaptation,2,Time,1]}
Variable Acres_planted_adapt3
Title: Acres planted adaptation (yield threshold)
Units: acres
Description: acres actaully planted out of total acres. Sums "Acres moved to fallow" for each consecutive year. Once acres are put into fallow, the assumption is the farmer keeps them fallow and does not transition back into continuous.
Definition: Dynamic(Acres_moved_to_adapt,If Acres_moved_to_adapt+self[Time-1]>=2000 then 2000 else Acres_moved_to_adapt+self[Time-1] )
NodeLocation: 352,560,1
NodeSize: 48,48
WindState: 2,351,574,541,421
ValueState: 2,-162,87,659,744,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,39321,50245
GraphSetup: {!40000|Att_ContLineStyle Graph_Primary_Valdim:6}
ReformVal: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,Time]
Att__GraphPrintScali: 100,1,1,1,1,1,2794,2159,15,0
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Adaptation,2,Time,1,MSD_Event_series_Mea,2]}
Variable Acres_moved_to_adapt
Title: Acres moved to adaptation (yield threshold)
Units: acres
Description: this tells the model how many acres to move to the adaptive method of farming. Each time there is a "failure" as defined by the "gradual shift failure node", the "Acres planted fallow shifting" node moves x amount of acres over to fallow. It is unrealistic to assume a farmer would move acres into fallow in consecutive years. Therefore this node forces one year of no adaptation before more acres can be moved from continuous to fallow.
Definition: Dynamic(Acre_adaptation_node, Acre_adaptation_node, If self[Time-2]=0 and Acre_adaptation_node =Acre_adaptation_node[Time-1] then 0 else Acre_adaptation_node)
NodeLocation: 232,560,1
NodeSize: 48,48
WindState: 2,384,0,591,277
ValueState: 2,66,169,727,694,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,39321,50245
ReformVal: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,Time]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Adaptation,2,Time,1,MSD_Event_series_Mea,1]}
Alias Cost_acre_of_unplan2
Title: Cost/acre of unplanted land GC FOUR
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 352,808,1
NodeSize: 48,44
NodeColor: 39321,65535,58982
Original: Cost_acre_of_unplant
Alias Net_income_fallow2
Title: Net income fallow
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 952,560,1
NodeSize: 48,40
NodeColor: 65535,62255,39321
Original: Net_income_adaptatio
Variable Normalize_variable_5
Title: Normalize variable for NI adaptation (yield threshold)
Description: takes acres planted fallow into account to determine what dollar amount to be used to normalize net income. don't need to divide by 2 because Aces_planted_fallow already takes it into account
Definition: Net_income_adaptatio*(Acres_planted_adapt3/2000)
NodeLocation: 816,560,1
NodeSize: 48,56
WindState: 2,237,162,487,407
ValueState: 2,29,126,809,815,0,MIDM
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Adaptation,2,Time,1,MSD_Event_series_Mea,1]}
Alias Proportion_of_acres1
Title: Proportion of acres switched to fallow
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 112,424,1
NodeSize: 48,40
NodeColor: 65535,0,0
Original: Proportion_of_acres
Variable Acres_planted_per_a3
Title: Acres planted per adaptation (yield threshold)
Definition: Table(Adaptation)(Acres_planted_adapt3,Acres_planted_adapt3/2,Acres_planted_adapt3,Acres_planted_adapt3/2)
NodeLocation: 504,560,1
NodeSize: 48,48
DefnState: 2,1405,619,416,303,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,-6,162,641,725,0,MIDM
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,2,MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Time,1,Adaptation,1]}
Objective Adaptation_NI_not_no
Title: Adaptation NI not normalized (yield threshold)
Units: $
Description: Distribution of net income for adaptation (total gross received-total cost to plant) over all fallow acres (planted and non-planted).
Definition: Gross_received-Total_cost_of_adapta
NodeLocation: 808,808,1
NodeSize: 48,48
WindState: 2,621,48,559,344
ValueState: 2,0,152,1015,535,1,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,19661,38773
ReformVal: [Time,MSD_Event_series_Mea,Undefined,Undefined,1]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Adaptation,2,Time,8,MSD_Event_series_Mea,1]}
Alias Yield_normal_distri2
Title: Yield normal distribution
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 360,88,1
NodeSize: 56,40
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
NodeColor: 65535,65531,1
Original: Yield_normal_distrib
Alias Fallow_crop_yield_m1
Title: Fallow crop yield mean
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 216,88,1
NodeSize: 48,31
NodeColor: 65535,65531,1
Original: Adaptive_crop_yield_
Alias Standard_deviation_9
Title: Standard deviation Fallow crop yield
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 520,88,1
NodeSize: 60,36
NodeColor: 65535,65531,1
Original: Standard_deviation_F
Alias Normal_distribution3
Title: Normal distribution Fallow yield shifted
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 352,208,1
NodeSize: 48,40
NodeColor: 65535,65531,1
Original: Normal_distribution1
Alias Shifted_mean3
Title: Shifted mean
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 216,208,1
NodeSize: 48,24
NodeColor: 65535,65531,1
Original: Shifted_mean1
Alias shifted_standard_de3
Title: shifted standard deviation
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 520,208,1
NodeSize: 48,31
NodeColor: 65535,65531,1
Original: shifted_standard_de1
Alias Adaptation_mean_shi3
Title: Adaptation mean shift
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 96,208,1
NodeSize: 48,24
NodeColor: 65535,65531,1
Original: Relationship_between
Alias Truncate_yield2
Title: Truncate yield (rule of thumb)
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 352,320,1
NodeSize: 64,48
NodeColor: 65535,39321,50245
Original: Truncate_yield
Alias Select_Climate_scen6
Title: Select Climate scenario
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 96,96,1
NodeSize: 48,32
Original: Climate_scenario
Close Adaptation_module2
Objective NI_Adaptive_Farmer1
Title: NI Adaptive Farmer (yield threshold)
Units: $
Description: Net income for shifting climate module for both continuous and fallow. Adds net income from fallow and continuous farming for a given.
Definition: Normalized_NI_adapti+Normalized_NI_adapta
NodeLocation: 1368,312,1
NodeSize: 48,48
WindState: 2,1068,509,569,271
ValueState: 2,177,301,632,450,1,MIDM
NodeColor: 52427,58983,65535
GraphSetup: {!40000|Att_ContLineStyle Graph_Primary_Valdim:6}
ReformVal: [Time,MSD_Event_series_Mea,2,Undefined,1]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Adaptation,4,MSD_Event_series_Mea,2,Time,1]}
Variable Sum_of_Net_income
Title: Sum of Net income (yield threshold)
Units: $
Description: This node sums the net income each year (i.e. 1998=sum of net income for 1996, 97, & 98).
Definition: Dynamic(NI_Adaptive_Farmer1, NI_Adaptive_Farmer1+self[Time-1])
NodeLocation: 1512,312,1
NodeSize: 48,40
WindState: 2,1359,617,476,224
DefnState: 2,1033,602,416,303,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,1157,284,486,619,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 52427,58983,65535
ReformVal: [Adaptation,Time,Undefined,Undefined,1]
Variable Total_production_Ad1
Title: Total production Adaptive vs non-adaptive (yield threshold)
Units: bushels
Description: this node sums production from fallow and continuous to observe total production change over time.
Definition: [(Adaptive_farmer__tot+Total_production1),Non_adaptive_farmer_]
NodeLocation: 1368,752,1
NodeSize: 48,64
WindState: 2,613,298,507,349
ValueState: 2,0,0,589,357,1,MIDM
NodeColor: 52427,58983,65535
GraphSetup: {!40000|Att_ContLineStyle Graph_Primary_Valdim:6}
ReformVal: [Time,Self]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [Self,2,Time,1]}
Objective NPV_Adaptive_farmer_
Title: NPV Adaptive farmer (yield threshold)
Units: $
Definition: NPV(3%,NI_Adaptive_Farmer1,Time,0)
NodeLocation: 1240,312,1
NodeSize: 48,48
WindState: 2,102,83,476,224
NodeColor: 52427,58983,65535
Variable Compare_adaptive_v_3
Title: Compare adaptive v non-adaptive NPV (yield threshold)
Definition: [NPV_Adaptive_farmer_,NPV_NON_adaptvie_far]
NodeLocation: 1240,472,1
NodeSize: 48,48
ValueState: 2,718,248,416,303,1,MIDM
NodeColor: 52427,58983,65535
ReformVal: [Self,MSD_Event_series_Mea]
Alias Continuous_Crop_yie5
Title: Continuous Crop yield normal distribution
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 1656,472,1
NodeSize: 64,48
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
NodeColor: 52427,58983,65535
Original: Continuous_Crop_yiel
Variable A25th_percentile_of3
Title: 25th percentile of non-changing yield
Definition: getfract(Continuous_Crop_yiel, 0.25)
NodeLocation: 1656,176,1
NodeSize: 48,40
ValueState: 2,1014,280,416,303,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 52427,58983,65535
Variable A50th_percentile_of_
Title: 50th percentile of yield (yield threshold)
Definition: getfract(Truncate_continuous_, 0.5)
NodeLocation: 1512,64,1
NodeSize: 48,40
ValueState: 2,-10,122,1072,684,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 52427,58983,65535
ReformVal: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,Time]
Variable NI_adaptive_VS_non_a
Title: NI adaptive VS non-adaptive farmers
Units: $
Definition: [NI_Adaptive_Farmer4,NI_Adaptive_Farmer,NI_Adaptive_Farmer1,NI_non_adaptive_farm]
NodeLocation: 192,312,1
NodeSize: 48,48
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0,
WindState: 2,102,83,476,224
ValueState: 2,370,2,1287,830,1,MIDM
Aliases: FormNode Compare_NI4
NodeColor: 65535,1,1
GraphSetup: {!40000|Graph_LineThickness:3}
ReformVal: [Time,Self]
{!40000|Att_GraphValueRange: 1,,,,,,10}
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [Adaptation,1,Self,1,Time,1]}
Variable Compare_failure_node
Title: Compare failure node
Definition: [Failure_Outcome2,Failure_Outcome1,Failure_Outcome]
NodeLocation: 296,176,0
NodeSize: 48,24
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0,
ValueState: 2,432,157,980,773,0,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,1,1
ReformVal: [Self,Time]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,2,MSD_Event_series_Sta,1,Adaptation,1,Time,1,Self,1]}
Module Non_adaptive_farmer1
Title: Non-adaptive farmer module
Author: Administrator
Date: Fri, Jan 4, 2013 3:15 PM
NodeLocation: 192,608,1
NodeSize: 48,32
DiagState: 2,1,0,1099,757,17
Variable Non_adaptive_farmer_
Title: Non-adaptive farmer Cont total production
Units: bushel
Description: Takes shifting climate into account. This is the harvest for all 2000 acres continuously and did not adapt by moving acres to fallow cropping. Production Is driven by "climate change", but the farmer does not adapt, therefore all 2000 acres are planted each year as a continuous crop.
Definition: Truncate_continuous_*Farmable_acres
NodeLocation: 464,400,1
NodeSize: 48,56
WindState: 2,799,521,476,224
ValueState: 2,712,613,416,303,1,PDFP
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
ReformVal: [Undefined,Time,Undefined,Undefined,1]
Variable Gross_income_Non_ada
Title: Gross income Non-adaptive farmer
Units: $
Description: the distribution recieved (gross) for total continuous wheat productions. the distribution recieved (gross) for total continuous wheat productions. No costs have been subtracted in this node.
Definition: Non_adaptive_farmer_*Market_Price_non_ad1
NodeLocation: 592,400,1
NodeSize: 56,56
WindState: 2,1213,117,476,224
ValueState: 2,1141,614,416,303,1,PDFP
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
ReformVal: [Undefined,Time,Undefined,Undefined,1]
Objective NI_non_adaptive_farm
Title: NI non-adaptive farmer
Units: $
Description: Distribution of net income for continuous crop (total gross received-total cost to plant) over all continuous acres planted. The farmer does not adapt, therefore all 2000 acres are planted each year as a continuous crop. The "Dist Net income continuous" is subtracted to normalize the net income (since net income from original model with no climate change has a negative value).
Definition: Gross_income_Non_ada-Cost_to_plant__non_a-Dist_Net_income_cont
NodeLocation: 728,400,1
NodeSize: 56,56
WindState: 2,658,230,662,580
ValueState: 2,195,347,693,503,1,MIDM
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
ReformVal: [Time,MSD_Event_series_Mea]
Variable Cost_to_plant__non_a
Title: Cost to plant non-adaptive farmer
Units: $
Description: Total cost to plant all 2000 acres as continuous crop. Takes amount planted (continuous) in acres times cost to plant (as a distribution). takes climate changes into account. The farmer does not adapt, therefore all 2000 acres are planted each year as a continuous crop.
Definition: Cost_to_plant_non_a2*Farmable_acres
NodeLocation: 864,400,1
NodeSize: 56,48
WindState: 2,692,544,476,224
ValueState: 2,212,219,416,303,1,PDFP
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
Objective NPV_NON_adaptvie_far
Title: NPV NON-adaptvie farmer
Definition: NPV(3%,NI_non_adaptive_farm,Time,0)
NodeLocation: 728,504,1
NodeSize: 48,32
WindState: 2,1027,549,476,224
ValueState: 2,270,439,416,303,0,MIDM
ReformVal: [Climate_variation,MSD_Event_series_Mea]
Alias Continuous_Crop_yie4
Title: Continuous Crop yield mean
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 184,144,1
NodeSize: 48,31
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
Original: Continuous_Crop_yie1
Alias Standard_deviation10
Title: Standard deviation of Cont crop yield
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 496,144,1
NodeSize: 60,36
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
Original: Standard_deviation_o
Alias Truncate_spring_whe3
Title: Truncate spring wheat yield
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 328,400,1
NodeSize: 64,48
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
Original: Truncate_continuous_
Alias Continuous_Crop_yie8
Title: Continuous Crop yield normal distribution
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 336,144,1
NodeSize: 72,40
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,1,,0
NodeColor: 65535,65535,65535
Original: Continuous_Crop_yiel
Alias Normal_distribution5
Title: Normal distribution continuous yield
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 328,256,1
NodeSize: 48,40
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
Original: Normal_distribution_
Alias Shifted_mean5
Title: Shifted mean
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 184,256,1
NodeSize: 48,24
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
Original: Shifted_mean
Alias shifted_standard_de5
Title: shifted standard deviation
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 496,256,1
NodeSize: 48,31
NodeColor: 65535,45873,39321
Original: shifted_standard_dev
Close Non_adaptive_farmer1
Variable NI_adaptive
Title: NI adaptive (rule of thumb) VS non-adaptive farmers
Units: $
Definition: [NI_Adaptive_Farmer4,NI_non_adaptive_farm]
NodeLocation: 472,608,1
NodeSize: 48,48
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0,
ValueState: 2,-356,10,1287,830,1,MIDM
Aliases: FormNode NI_adaptive2
NodeColor: 65535,1,1
GraphSetup: {!40000|Graph_LineThickness:3}~
{!40000|Att_GraphValueRange NI_adaptive:1,,0,,,,10,-120K,20K}
ReformVal: [Time,Adaptation]
Att__TotalsIndex: Index Adaptation
{!40000|Att_GraphValueRange: 1,,,,,,10}
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [Adaptation,-1,Self,1,Time,1]}
Variable NI_adaptive1
Title: NI adaptive (yield threshold) VS non-adaptive farmers
Units: $
Definition: [NI_Adaptive_Farmer1,NI_non_adaptive_farm]
NodeLocation: 1368,608,1
NodeSize: 48,56
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0,
ValueState: 2,140,13,1287,830,1,MIDM
Aliases: FormNode NI_adaptive4
NodeColor: 65535,1,1
GraphSetup: {!40000|Graph_LineThickness:3}
ReformVal: [Time,Self]
{!40000|Att_GraphValueRange: 1,,,,,,10}
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [Adaptation,3,Self,1,Time,1]}
Variable NI_adaptive3
Title: NI adaptive (NI threshold) VS non-adaptive farmers
Units: $
Definition: [NI_Adaptive_Farmer,NI_non_adaptive_farm]
NodeLocation: 856,608,1
NodeSize: 48,56
NodeInfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0,
ValueState: 2,140,13,1287,830,1,MIDM
Aliases: FormNode NI_adaptive5
NodeColor: 65535,1,1
GraphSetup: {!40000|Graph_LineThickness:3}
ReformVal: [Time,Self]
{!40000|Att_GraphValueRange: 1,,,,,,10}
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [Adaptation,3,Self,1,Time,1]}
Close Reactive_Farmer
Index MSD_Event_series_Mea
Title: MSD Event series Mean
Definition: ['Grad realistic','Rapid realistic','Grad standard drougt','Grad extreme drought','No change extreme drought','No climate change']
IndexVals: ['item 1']
NodeLocation: 144,80,1
NodeSize: 48,24
NodeColor: 65535,55703,52427
{!40300|Att_SlicerPopupSize: 227,98}
Variable Climate_variation
Title: Climate variation
Definition: [No_change,Greater_climate_vari]
IndexVals: ['item 1']
NodeLocation: 656,256,1
NodeSize: 48,40
WindState: 2,747,477,476,224
NodeColor: 36044,36044,36044
Index Adaptation
Title: Adaptation
Definition: ['Plant earlier','Fallow','Winter wheat','winter wheat following fallow']
IndexVals: ['item 1']
NodeLocation: 296,104,1
NodeSize: 48,24
WindState: 2,102,83,476,224
NodeColor: 26214,26214,26214
{!40300|Att_SlicerPopupSize: 277,84}
{!40000|Att_PrevIndexValue: ['Plant earlier','Fallow','Winter wheat','winter wheat following fallow']}
Variable Relationship_between
Title: Relationship between adaptation mean shifts
Units: bu
Description: this node makes the mean shift specific to each crop. The yield distribution (typically represented by the mid point) are effected by climate change in different ways, which is determined by this node
Definition: Table(Adaptation)(Climate_scenario*.9,Climate_scenario*.7,if Climate_scenario >-3.5 then -4 else abs(Climate_scenario/3),if Climate_scenario >-3.5 then -4 else abs(Climate_scenario/2))
NodeLocation: 288,256,1
NodeSize: 56,40
WindState: 2,374,98,544,313
DefnState: 2,125,451,788,325,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,659,53,1092,727,0,MIDM
Aliases: Alias Adaptation_mean_shi1, Alias Adaptation_mean_shi2, Alias Adaptation_mean_shi3, FormNode Adaptation_mean_shi4, FormNode Adaptation_mean_shi5
NodeColor: 36044,36044,36044
ReformVal: [MSD_Event_series_Mea,Time]
{!40000|Att_ResultSliceState: [Adaptation,1,Time,1,MSD_Event_series_Mea,1]}
Variable Gradual
Title: Gradual
Definition: Table(Time)(0,0,-0.5,-1,0,-1,0,-1,0,-1,-2,-2.5,-3,-4,-3,-3,-4,-3.5,-2,-1,-3,-4,-2,-4,-5,-4,-4.5,-6,-7,-7)
NodeLocation: 160,416,1
NodeSize: 48,24
WindState: 2,602,35,476,224
Variable Rapid
Title: Rapid
Definition: Table(Time)(0,0,-1,-1,-2,0,-3,-3.5,-4,-3.5,-5,-4.5,-6,-6.5,-7,-3,-8,-8,-9,-4.5,-10,-10,-9,-11,-12,-10,-13,-13,-10,-14)
NodeLocation: 160,464,1
NodeSize: 48,24
WindState: 2,206,37,476,224
Variable Gradual_with_drought
Title: Gradual with drought
Definition: Table(Time)(0,0,-7,-1,0,-1,0,-1,0,0,-2,-2.5,-3,-4,-3,-3,-4,-3.5,-2,0,-3,-4,-2,-4,-5,-4,-4.5,-6,-7,-7)
NodeLocation: 160,520,1
NodeSize: 48,32
WindState: 2,202,92,476,224
Variable Gradual_with_extreme
Title: Gradual with extreme drought
Definition: Table(Time)(0,0,-14,-1,0,-1,0,-1,0,0,-2,-2.5,-3,-4,-3,-3,-4,-3.5,-2,0,-3,-4,-2,-4,-5,-4,-4.5,-6,-7,-7)
NodeLocation: 160,592,1
NodeSize: 48,40
WindState: 2,190,135,476,224
Variable No_change_extreme_dr
Title: No change extreme drought
Definition: Table(Time)(0,0,-14,-1,0,-1,2,0,-1,3,5,2,0,-2,-1,1,1,0,2,3,1,-1,-2,2,1,3,1,2,1,0)
NodeLocation: 160,664,1
NodeSize: 48,32
WindState: 2,80,396,476,224
Variable no_climate_change
Title: No climate change
Definition: Table(Time)(0,0,-2,-1,0,-1,2,0,-1,3,5,2,0,-2,-1,1,1,0,2,3,1,-1,-2,2,1,3,1,2,1,0)
NodeLocation: 160,720,1
NodeSize: 48,24
WindState: 2,68,480,476,224
Variable Climate_table
Title: Climate table
Definition: [Gradual,Rapid,Gradual_with_drought,Gradual_with_extreme,No_change_extreme_dr,no_climate_change]
NodeLocation: 160,344,1
NodeSize: 48,24
WindState: 2,619,425,476,224
DefnState: 2,283,525,416,303,0,MIDM
ValueState: 2,360,363,416,303,0,MIDM
ReformVal: [Self,Time]
Module Additional_inputs
Title: Additional inputs
Author: Administrator
Date: Fri, Apr 26, 2013 5:15 PM
NodeLocation: 288,416,1
NodeSize: 48,24
FormNode Cost_to_plant1
Title: Cost to plant
Definition: 0
NodeLocation: 296,77,1
NodeSize: 248,16
NodeInfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,72,1,1,0,
NodeColor: 55705,55705,55705
Original: Cost_to_plant
FormNode Market_Price1
Title: Market Price
Definition: 0
NodeLocation: 296,112,1
NodeSize: 248,16
NodeInfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,78,1,1,0
NodeColor: 55705,55705,55705
Original: Market_Price
FormNode Continuous_yield_da1
Title: Continuous yield data
Definition: 0
NodeLocation: 296,151,1
NodeSize: 248,16
NodeInfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,72,1,1,0,
NodeColor: 55705,55705,55705
Original: Continuous_yield_dat
FormNode Fallow_yield_data1
Title: Fallow yield data
Definition: 0
NodeLocation: 296,188,1
NodeSize: 248,16
NodeInfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,72,1,1,0,
NodeColor: 55705,55705,55705
Original: Adaptation_yield_dat
FormNode Years_index1
Title: Years index
Definition: 0
NodeLocation: 296,40,1
NodeSize: 248,16
NodeInfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,72,1,1,0,
NodeColor: 55705,55705,55705
Original: Years_index
FormNode MSD_Failure_constan1
Title: MSD Failure constant ONE
Definition: 0
NodeLocation: 296,40,1
NodeSize: 248,16
NodeInfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,72,1,1,0,
NodeColor: 55705,55705,55705
Original: Failure_constant
FormNode Adaptation_mean_shi4
Title: Adaptation mean shift
Definition: 0
NodeLocation: 296,40,1
NodeSize: 248,16
NodeInfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,78,1,1,0
NodeColor: 55705,55705,55705
Original: Relationship_between
Close Additional_inputs
Decision Climate_scenario
Title: Climate scenario
Description: Choose the climate scenario using the drop down menu.
Definition: Choice(Self,4)
NodeLocation: 160,256,1
NodeSize: 48,32
WindState: 2,473,345,476,383
ValueState: 2,280,283,577,302,0,MIDM
Aliases: Alias Select_Climate_scen1, Alias Select_Climate_scen4, Alias Select_Climate_scen2, Alias Select_Climate_scen5, Alias Select_Climate_scen3, Alias Select_Climate_scen6, FormNode Select_Climate_scen7
ReformVal: [Self,Time]
Domain: Climate_table
{!40300|DomainExpr: Climate_table}
{!40200|Att_ChoiceIndexes: Keyword Self}
Variable No_change
Title: No change
Definition: 0
NodeLocation: 656,416,1
NodeSize: 48,24
Variable Greater_climate_vari
Title: Greater climate variability
Definition: 7
NodeLocation: 656,360,1
NodeSize: 48,24
Module Additional_outputs
Title: Additional outputs
Author: Administrator
Date: Fri, Apr 26, 2013 5:15 PM
NodeLocation: 288,352,1
NodeSize: 48,24
FormNode Adaptation_mean_shi5
Title: Adaptation mean shift
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 296,40,1
NodeSize: 248,16
NodeInfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,72,1,1,0,
NodeColor: 58982,58982,58982
Original: Relationship_between
Close Additional_outputs
Decision Climate_variability_
Title: Climate variability 2
Definition: Choice(Self,1)
NodeLocation: 536,256,1
NodeSize: 48,24
WindState: 2,-25,95,476,224
Aliases: FormNode Climate_variability1
Domain: Climate_variation
{!40300|DomainExpr: Climate_variation}
{!40200|Att_ChoiceIndexes: Keyword Self}
Close Model1
FormNode Proportion_of_acres_
Title: Proportion of acres switched to fallow
Definition: 0
NodeLocation: 368,80,1
NodeSize: 248,16
NodeInfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,72,1,1,0,
NodeColor: 55705,55705,55705
Original: Proportion_of_acres
FormNode Compare_NPV1
Title: Compare NPV
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 1112,240,1
NodeSize: 248,16
NodeInfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,72,1,1,0,
NodeColor: 58982,58982,58982
Original: Compare_NPV_adaptive
FormNode Compare_NI4
Title: Compare NI
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 1112,199,1
NodeSize: 248,16
NodeInfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,72,1,1,0,
NodeColor: 58982,58982,58982
Original: NI_adaptive_VS_non_a
Text Te1
Description: INPUTS
NodeLocation: 368,24,-1
NodeSize: 248,16
NodeInfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,1,,0
NodeFont: Arial,15
Text Te2
Description: OUTPUTS
NodeLocation: 1112,24,-1
NodeSize: 248,16
NodeInfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,1,,1,,0
NodeFont: Arial,15
FormNode NI_adaptive2
Title: NI adaptive (rule of thumb) VS non-adaptive farmers
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 1112,76,1
NodeSize: 248,16
NodeInfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,72,1,1,0,
NodeColor: 58982,58982,58982
Original: NI_adaptive
FormNode NI_adaptive4
Title: NI adaptive (yield threshold) VS non-adaptive farmers
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 1112,117,1
NodeSize: 248,16
NodeInfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,72,1,1,0,
NodeColor: 58982,58982,58982
Original: NI_adaptive1
FormNode NI_adaptive5
Title: NI adaptive (NI threshold) VS non-adaptive farmers
Definition: 1
NodeLocation: 1112,158,1
NodeSize: 248,16
NodeInfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,72,1,1,0,
NodeColor: 58982,58982,58982
Original: NI_adaptive3
FormNode Select_Climate_scen7
Title: Select Climate scenario
Definition: 0
NodeLocation: 368,120,1
NodeSize: 248,16
NodeInfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,262,1,1,0
NodeColor: 52428,52428,52428
Original: Climate_scenario
FormNode Climate_variability1
Title: Climate variability 2
Definition: 0
NodeLocation: 368,168,1
NodeSize: 248,16
NodeInfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0,254,1,1,0
NodeColor: 52428,52428,52428
Original: Climate_variability_
Close Farm_Adapt_dynamic