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TreeFlow
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Rio Grande TreeFlow
Colorado
River Streamflow: A Paleo Perspective
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Tree-ring reconstructions of streamflow
and climate for the Rio Grande basin and adjacent basins
Overview
Multi-century reconstructions
of streamflow and climate based on tree rings effectively extend
observed records, providing more complete information about past
hydrologic and climatic variability to use in drought planning
and water management. The availability and use of these paleohydrologic
and paleoclimatic data in the Rio Grande basin, though, has lagged
behind other major river basins in the West, particularly the
Colorado River.
The goal of an ongoing (2007-08)
project involving WWA
and CLIMAS
researchers is to improve the usability of tree-ring reconstructions
of streamflow and climate in the Rio Grande basin through (1)
the development of new reconstructions, (2) the presentation of
two technical workshops (in
November 2007 and May
2008) for resource managers and stakeholders, (3) the development
of web-based visualization and analysis tools, and (4) a web resource
to serve as a single source for reconstruction data and guidance
on how to use the data.
Available Reconstruction
Data
The first reconstructions of annual streamflow in the Rio Grande
basin were developed in 2005, for four gages in the upper Rio
Grande basin in Colorado, on behalf of the Rio Grande Water Conservancy
District. The current Rio Grande project has generated three preliminary
streamflow reconstructions, for the Rio Grande near Otowi (for
both gaged and natural flow) and the Canadian River near Sanchez.
The map below and the links to the
right provide access to the streamflow reconstruction data.
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Data
- Tree-ring reconstructions of annual streamflow
Rio Grande Basin
Canadian Basin
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Hydroclimatic variables for the Rio
Grande basin other than annual streamflow have also been reconstructed:
Web-based
tools for data visualization and analysis
A key part of the ongoing project is the development of
web-based tools to allow users to effectively analyze and visualize
tree-ring data. We have developed two prototype tools (they require
Java to run--most computers have it, download
Java from Sun if they don't open and run). Use the links below
to test them out and let us know what you think:
Applications of reconstructions
to drought planning and water management
Reconstructions of streamflow and climate are generally
used in two ways:
- as long-term context for the observed
record of streamflow or climate, often qualitatively (in the form
of visualizations) or in simple quantitative analyses
- as numeric input into a modeling
environment (e.g., water system model) to perform rigorous policy
and risk analyses, which usually requires additional processing
of the tree-ring data
A good example of the first category
is Figure 2 and associated text in Hurd and Coonrod's 2007 report
on the impacts of climate change on New Mexico's water resources.
The only previous effort in the Rio Grande basin in the second category
was conducted by S.S. Papadopolous and Associates (SSPA) for the
URGWOM project in the middle Rio Grande. SSPA used a tree-ring reconstruction
of summer PDSI as a proxy for hydrologic variability, since there
were no streamflow reconstructions of the Rio Grande available at
that time. SSPA used the reconstructed PDSI to re-standardize the
model climatology (1975-1999), then generated synthetic hydrologies,
to run in URGWOM, that were reflective of the long-term conditions
as expressed in the tree rings. (Presentation
on SSPA work)
As of May 2008, two forthcoming projects
in the Rio Grande basin will involve the application tree-ring
data as input into models:
- The City of Santa Fe has contracted
with the University of Arizona to develop tree-ring reconstructions
of streamflow for the Santa Fe River which can then be run in
the City's water supply model.
- The New Mexico Interstate Stream
Commission has retained AMEC Engineering to develop a set of model
input derived from tree-ring data that can be run directly in
the URGWOM model
For descriptions of applications
of tree-ring reconstructions in other basins, see here.
Other resources
Introduction to tree-ring
reconstructions
Technical workshops for water resource
managers
Other useful web sites and references
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