Understand the origin and recurrence of severe/sustained drought in the Interior West

Team members: Martin Hoerling, Shaleen Jain, Connie Woodhouse

The above figure shows reconstructions of streamflow from Middle Boulder Creek based on tree ring evidence. It is immediately apparent that droughts in the 19th century (top row) were more severe and of greater duration than the droughts of the 20th century (bottom row). Most water management agencies use the 1950s drought as the worst case scenario. It is unclear if we could cope with an 1840s-style drought-particularly in light of escalating regional growth and increased competition for water resources.

Climate scientists on our project are seeking to understand the recurrence and persistence of droughts as well as their origins, mechanisms and predictability.