October 23, 2012

The latest monthly and seasonal Climate Outlooks released on October 18 by NOAA CPC continue to show equal chances (EC) for above-normal or below-normal precipitation for the October through January period, reflecting the likelihood of either ENSO-neutral or weak El Niño conditions during this period, as seen in the IRI's mid-October ENSO Prediction Plume. The CPC Climate Outlooks continue to show enhanced odds for above-normal temperatures, consistent with the long-term trend towards warmer conditions. The latest CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook also released October 18 projects that the drought conditions across our region will persist through at least December.

Thus far in October (and the beginning of the 2013 water year), according to the HPRCC Water Year Precipitation map, precipitation has been well below-average across the region except for small areas in north-central Colorado and southwestern Utah. Over the next 4-5 days a storm system is forecasted to bring significant precipitation to northern and eastern Colorado, northern Utah, and much of Wyoming.

As of October 23, the Current Basin Snowpack map from NRCS shows a misleading picture for Utah as there are actually very few SNOTEL sites in that state, and across the region, reporting any SWE on the ground. [Correction 10/24: The deleted wording did not distinguish sites that were not reporting any data from sites that were reporting zero SWE. And more sites are now reporting data on 10/24, compared to the previous day. See this SNOTEL map from NRCS for a clearer depiction of current site-level data across the West.] Most SNOTEL sites across the region are reporting below-average precipitation since October 1, consistent with the HPRCC precipitation map, which does not include SNOTEL data.