March 13, 2017

  • While the snow blitz of December and January slowed in February and early March, SWE values across the region are still well above median as of March 13th, except in north-central and northeastern Wyoming. Most basins are now above their median seasonal peak SWE, and some sites in northwestern Wyoming, northeastern Utah, and central and southwestern Colorado have record-high SWE for the date.
  • The March 1 NRCS spring-summer runoff forecasts call for above-average (>110%) runoff at the vast majority of forecast points across the region, with >150% of average runoff expected throughout northern and central Utah and western Wyoming. Lake Powell inflows are forecasted to be 154% of average by NRCS, and 145% of average by NOAA CBRFC.
  • February saw most of Wyoming, northern Utah, and parts of western Colorado receiving above-normal precipitation, while southern Utah, northeastern Wyoming, and eastern Colorado had below-normal precipitation. Statewide, Wyoming was in the 97th percentile for precipitation (topping off its wettest December-February ever), with Utah in the 72nd percentile and Colorado in the 45th percentile.
  • February was very warm, with widespread temperature departures of +4°F to +10°F . Colorado had its second-warmest February on record, 6.7°F above normal.
  • Drought conditions have held steady since early February, aside from some small areas of deterioration in eastern Colorado. D1 or D2 conditions now cover 37% of Colorado (up from 35%), 9% of Wyoming (same as last month), and 0% of Utah (same as last month).
  • That weak but scrappy La Niña is finally over, and the tropical Pacific is now in ENSO-neutral conditions . The ENSO forecast models call for neutral conditions to continue through spring, with a ~50% chance of transition to El Niño conditions by late summer and early fall .

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