July 26, 2017 (AZ, NM)

Adapted from the July CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook

• June precipitation ranged from record driest to near average in Arizona, while in New Mexico, precipitation ranged from much-below to much-above average . This difference reflects the typical progression of monsoon activity in the Southwest and the relatively late start to monsoon activity observed in much of Arizona this year. Thus far in July, precipitation has been generally above average in Arizona and below average in New Mexico. Year-to-date precipitation for 2017 shows average to above-average precipitation in all of New Mexico and much of Arizona, with a pocket of below-average precipitation in southeast Arizona .
• June temperatures ranged from much-above average to record warmest in Arizona and from above average to much-above average in New Mexico . A region-wide heat wave that struck in mid-to-late June helped drag up the averages, and set a number of daily high records across Arizona, including 119 F in Phoenix on June 20. Temperatures thus far in July have been above average across Arizona and New Mexico.
• Drought conditions on the U.S. Drought Monitor have expanded in the past few weeks, with most of Arizona recording either D0 (abnormally dry) or D1 (moderate drought) conditions . This reflects short-term dryness in central and northern Arizona, as well as short- and long-term dryness in southern Arizona, a pattern that also extends to the southwestern corner of New Mexico.
• Arizona is experiencing an active wildfire season, with nearly 350,000 acres burned across the state thus far in 2017. A number of factors have contributed to the increased activity in Arizona this year, including abundant fine fuels, below-average winter precipitation, above-average temperatures, and a later-than-average start to the monsoon. New Mexico has had less fire activity, with 123,000 acres burned.
• Most ENSO models and forecasts continue to suggest the most likely outcome is ENSO-neutral conditions through winter (50-55 percent chance) . The chances of an El Niño event do remain elevated (35-45 percent chance) compared to long-term averages, with the chance of a La Niña event lowering to near zero by early spring.
• The NOAA CPC outlook for August calls for increased chances of above-average precipitation in Arizona and New Mexico. The CPC seasonal outlook for the August - October period likewise calls for increased chances of above-average precipitation in Arizona and New Mexico .