Current Research Projects |
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Funding Year 2013 (July 2012 - June 2013)Below is a list of WWA's current research projects. Click on the title of a project for a description, and the principal investigator to contact for more information. |
Level of concern regarding specific climate-related disasters as reported by representatives of municipalities in southern Colorado. From the Drivers of Adaptation project. |
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Drivers of Adaptation - A Comparative Analysis of Local Decision-Making in the American West
Principal Investigators
Lisa Dilling
Krister Andersson
Other Researchers
John Berggren
Multi-year effort to systematically investigate the conditions under which local decision-makers in cities and large towns in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming decide to adapt (or not) to increased climate-related risk and hazards, such as blizzards, tornadoes, and floods.
In 2011, the PIs developed and administered a semi-formal survey to over 140 individuals at the municipal level in 60 cities in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming. Interviews included three individuals for each city covering both elected and appointed positions. Survey questions asked about top priority areas, what natural hazards were seen as important, how municipalities have allocated resources to a given hazard, what types of plans exist and how they relate to implementation, impressions of memorable extreme events, where communities obtain information, how collaborations occur, how citizen groups are involved, and beliefs about climate change. In addition, researchers collected city policy documents and reviewed city websites for additional information. Preliminary findings indicate that while the acceptance of anthropogenic climate change widely varies among respondents, it does not appear to influence adaptation in any obvious way. In addition, results appear to show that municipalities that have experienced more disasters of greater magnitude tend to show greater adaptation. Work in 2012-2013 will entail in-depth case studies of six municipalities in the WWA region, with the goal of gaining a more complete understanding of why municipalities chose particular actions to mitigate their risk for weather and climate related hazards.
Analysis of Information Use by Stakeholders of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Principal Investigator
Lisa Dilling
Other Researchers
Roberta Klein
Assessment of the use of quantitative streamflow forecast information by Colorado Basin River Forecast Center stakeholders.
This project is aimed at developing a comprehensive understanding of the use of information by stakeholders of the NOAA/NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC). Through surveys and interviews, the researchers will assess the climate information needs of CBRFC stakeholders and how they do or do not use quantitative streamflow forecasts. This will provide 1) a better understanding of how water managers and others who use CBRFC forecasts deal with variability and 2) a context through which to view and understand the potential utility of the results of the “Snowmelt Perturbations in the Upper Colorado River Basin” project.
Cross-Jurisdictional Water Marketing
Principal Investigator
Douglas Kenney
Other Researchers
Julie Nania (University of Colorado School of Law)
Synthesis of lessons learned about interstate water marketing in the American West.
Discussions about the possibility of cross-jurisdictional water marketing in the Colorado River Basin have resumed after breaking off in the 1990s. This project will examine what was learned during previous discussions and what is known about water markets to assess how this policy mechanism could improve adaptability. It will also involve the development of a centralized database of federally reserved water rights for tribes, including compilation of information on whether tribes in the Colorado River basin have quantified rights and whether those rights can be marketed or leased.
Pilot learning effort on vulnerability, resilience, and ecosystem services
Principal Investigator
Carol Wessman
Pilot project aimed at exploring the utility of resilience theories in future WWA work.
This project is envisioned as a learning effort that would lead to an outline for further decision support products to be created by WWA. PI Wessman will research existing approaches to assessing vulnerability and stakeholder needs for comprehensive assessment, with a focus on ecosystem services and water reliability. Potential outputs include 1) ideas for future projects on resilience and water reliability; 2) a webinar for stakeholders; and 3) facilitated discussion among WWA team members and others.
Decision-Making Under Hydrologic Uncertainty
Principal Investigator
Bill Travis
Other Researchers
Mary Huisenga
Developing multiple computer models usable for exploring climate-related decision-making in the face of uncertainty.
This project builds on completed WWA work in order to explore decision-making in the face of hydrologic uncertainty. It will entail two separate efforts: 1) completing a prototype “drought indicators dashboard” the provides rich information on socioeconomic impacts of drought; 2) building on an existing farm decision model to develop additional decision-making models, potentially including wastewater and natural flows, urban stormwater, or ranchers and drought.
Water for Energy
Principal Investigator
Kristen Averyt
Other Researchers
James Meldrum
Outlining the national water footprint of electricity generation and addressing regional vulnerabilities to climatically driven changes in water and energy resources both in the present and in the near future.
In November 2011, the first of two major reports on water and energy produced by the Union of Concerned Scientists in collaboration with WWA researcher Averyt, was released. (“Freshwater Use by US Power Plants: Electricity’s Thirst for a Precious Resource,” available at http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/clean_energy/ew3/ew3-freshwater-use-by-us-power-plants.pdf). Initial work to assess water use by power plants across the US resulted in two major insights: 1) Data collected and disseminated by the Energy Information Administration about water withdrawals and consumption is significantly flawed, and given that 41% of national water withdrawals are by power plants, these data gaps can create significant problems for those managing and planning for water resources; 2) Stress imposed on water systems by power plants is both a water quality and quantity issue. Additional work includes water stress analyses for multiple regions. Current work includes modeling efforts that consider water consumption under scenarios of different energy production and/or higher future temperatures.
Snowmelt perturbations in the Upper Colorado River Basin
Principal Investigators
Jeff Deems
Noah Molotch
Carol Wessman
Joe Barsugli
Klaus Wolter
Other Researchers
Ben Livneh
Brian Buma
Dominik Schneider
A collaborative effort among snow hydrologists, an ecologist, weather and climate experts, and hydrologists at the NOAA Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) to better understand drivers of snow accumulation and melt in the Upper Colorado River Basin with the ultimate goal of improving CBRFC streamflow forecasts.
Over the past decade, the Upper Colorado River Basin has experienced unusual runoff patterns resulting in anomalously high errors in peak and daily streamflow forecasts. Water managers and hydrologic forecasters suspect that bark beetle infestations and/or increased dust deposition on snowpack might be causing these runoff anomalies, but to date there has been no concerted effort to understand the contributions of various snowmelt perturbations. A multidisciplinary team of WWA researchers with expertise in climatology, meteorology, snow hydrology, and landscape ecology is bringing a novel combination of methodologies to bear on this question. The team has assembled streamflow data, vegetation change maps, and snow-water equivalent reconstructions in preparation for running a comprehensive land-and-snow-hydrology model. Four test basins were selected based on dust and beetle impacts: low dust/high beetle (Fish Creek, Snake), intermediate dust/incipient beetle (Boulder) and high dust/very low beetle (Uncompahgre). Spatial inputs for a hydrology model (DHVSM) are being prepped, with one of the four basins complete and two others nearing completion. Compilation and analysis of metorologic data and streamflow records for each basin have begun. Daily USGS streamgage and NRCS SNOTEL data are being processed and analyzed for all four watersheds. Phenologic maps have been created for Colorado and parts of WY, NM, and AZ (250,000km2) for input into DHVSM. MODIS NDVI-based growing season metrics include the observed start-of -season, end-of-season, and length-of-season since 2000 at 250m resolution. PIs are currently analyzing and mapping changes in these metrics through the record. MODIS-based Leaf Area Index (LAI) has been compiled for years 2002-2010 and processed for both mean and max summer LAI values. All of these metrics, representing vegetative water usage related to growth/death and evapotranspiration, will improve modeling of the influence of vegetation and the impact of disturbances such as the MPB on the hydrology of the region. The ultimate goal of this multi-year effort is to provide usable information to improve streamflow forecasting at the NOAA Colorado River Basin Forecast Center (CBRFC).
Climate Change Preparedness Among Tribal Communities in the American West
Principal Investigator
Karen Cozzetto
Other Researchers
Julie Nania
Julie Teel Simmonds
Project Deliverables
Technical Review of the Navajo Nation Drought Contingency Plan – Drought Monitoring
Building new stakeholder relationships with native communities and understanding tribes’ needs for relevant climate information and assistance to prepare for climate change.
Many tribes in the Southwest face pressing challenges that would be exacerbated by a warming climate, including persistent drought and land-cover change, while socioeconomic and historical factors may limit their adaptive capacity. This project seeks to understand tribal efforts towards climate adaptation while bringing university-based resources to bear on those efforts. Completed work includes the “Native Communities and Climate Change” database available at http://www.tribesandclimatechange.org and a culturally appropriate Tribal Energy Action and Climate Change Adaptation Reports in consultation with the Southern Ute Tribe and Navajo Nation in the Southwest. Ongoing work includes the development of relationships with tribal managers interested in drought mitigation, water conservation planning, or climate change information. The project will be completed in 2012 with a report on 1) how to transition knowledge and lessons learned to service partners and 2) the appropriate role of RISAs in addressing tribal issues within the region.
Pilot Climate Extension Services in Utah
Principal Investigator
Rob Gillies
Other Researchers
Rob Davies (Utah State University)
Continuing effort by WWA researchers located at the Utah Climate Center to pilot small-scale climate services relevant to various stakeholders in Utah.
In 2011, PI Gillies and others at the Utah Climate Center developed multiple small-scale pilot climate services efforts. These included forecasts of first freezes intended to help famers and better atmospheric inversion predictions intended to assist in air quality protection efforts. Continuing work will look for and address new small-scale, targeted needs for climate services and continue to build a foundation for more permanent climate extension capacity in Utah.
Assessment of Documented Needs for Climate Information in the Missouri River Basin
Principal Investigators
Kristen Averyt
Eric Gordon
Other Researchers
John Berggren
Doug Kluck (NOAA)
Final Project Report
Initial assessment of Missouri Basin stakeholder needs for information on impacts of climate variability and change.
By providing a broad overview of needs in the Missouri Basin, this effort can help guide federal investments in climate services for the basin by providing a blueprint for where services are needed the most. The examination of stakeholder needs involves developing a comprehensive list of documents where stakeholders have expressed the need for climate information within the Missouri River Basin, followed by a set of key stakeholder interviews aimed at filling in the gaps from the initial document review. Rather than beginning an assessment with the more traditional formal interview process, this project began with a systematic examination of stakeholder needs for climate information as demonstrated in existing documentation. (This method was used effectively in a previous project cataloging needs throughout the Western Water Assessment RISA region.) Reviewing previously published documents allows for the development of an understanding of baseline climate related needs over an extended time period. Conducting this type of needs analysis prior to interviewing stakeholders also helps avoid fatigue among stakeholders, a recognized informal and formal impediment to engaging relevant stakeholders in developing necessary and applicable research portfolios. The output of this project is intended to inform future work by Doug Kluck, the NOAA Central Region Climate Services Director, in coordinating regional climate services.
Climate adaptation for Western National Forests
Principal Investigator
Janine Rice
Other Researchers
Jeff Lukas
Linda Joyce (USDA Forest Service)
Conducting a pilot climate vulnerability assessment for the Shoshone National Forest as part of a broader effort by the US Forest Service to develop a climate adaptation toolkit.
As part of a broader US Forest Service effort entitled “A Toolkit for Adapting to Climate Change on Western National Forests: Incorporating Climate into Resource Management and Planning,” WWA’s Rice has been worked with others at the Forest Service’s Rocky Mountain Research Station in Fort Collins, CO on a pilot climate vulnerability assessment for the Shoshone National Forest. In 2011, Rice completed a Forest Service General Technical Report entitled “Climate Change on the Shoshone National Forest, Wyoming: A Synthesis of Past Climate, Climate Projections, and Ecosystem Implications,” which synthesizing current scientific information about climate and its effects on ecosystem components of the Shoshone NF. Additional funding provided in 2012 will be used for completion and review of the climate vulnerability assessment and publication of technical reports on vulnerability assessment of vegetation, water availability, and coldwater fish habitat.
Building Climate Science into Land and Water Conservation Planning and Decision-Making in the American Southwest
Principal Investigator
Bill Travis
Other Researchers
Joe Barsugli
Eric Gordon
Gregg Garfin (CLIMAS)
Multi-year effort to provide WWA-based expertise in climate science to help advance conservation efforts by The Nature Conservancy in moving beyond vulnerability assessments and into adaptation planning.
This project will entail connecting the climate expertise of two RISA programs, the Western Water Assessment (WWA) and Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), with regional conservation planners and decision-makers through collaboration with The Nature Conservancy’s (TNC) Southwest Climate Change Initiative (SWCCI) in order to improve climate adaptation planning and implementation by land managers in the American Southwest. A key challenge in this effort will be bringing climate knowledge to bear on the many habitat and species conservation efforts underway in the region and moving conservation projects beyond vulnerability assessments to adaptation planning and implementation. This project is intended to advance four goals: 1) expand translational science capacity in the region to support adaptation; 2) improve regional climate-sensitive conservation decision-making; 3) disseminate climate knowledge through conservation networks in the region; and 4) develop both a comprehensive evaluation of the project and a training curriculum for future personnel intending to engage in this type of work. The project as a whole is intended to prototype and develop a model for expanding the translational climate science capacity needed to move ecosystem management beyond vulnerability assessments and into on-the-ground decision-making for adaptation to climate variability and change.
Adaptation guidance for Salt Lake City Dept. of Public Utilities
Principal Investigator
Tim Bardsley
Other Researchers
Jeff Niermeyer (Salt Lake City Department of Public Utilities)
Laura Briefer (Salt Lake City Department of Public Utilities)
Andy Wood (NOAA Northwest Basin River Forecast Center)
Mike Hobbins (Colorado Basin River Forecast Center)
Steve Burian (University of Utah)
Court Strong (University of Utah)
Continued work aimed at advancing climate change assessment and adaptation work conducted in conjunction with the Salt Lake City Department of Public Utilities.
In 2011, WWA, the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC), and the Salt Lake Department of Public Utilities (SLCDPU) began a collaborative effort to assess potential impacts of climate change to the Salt Lake City water supply and develop no-regrets adaptation strategies in advance of such impacts. Preliminary discussions and analyses have evaluated the sensitivity of water supply volume, timing, and water demand to changes in temperature and precipitation. Recently, the group has expanded to include collaborations with the University of Utah as well as a proposal funded through University of Massachusetts and the National Weather Service. Ongoing work will entail the development of climate sensitivity analyses for Salt Lake City’s water supplies, including the development of future scenarios and an assessment of likely drivers of changes in water demand.
Project evaluation for stakeholder-oriented paleohydrology
Principal Investigators
Tim Bardsley
Jeff Lukas
Real-time longitudinal investigation of the process by which new dendochronological information is incorporated into water management across the Wasatch Front.
A research team led by the Wasatch Dendroclimatology Research Group (WADR) at Utah State University are in the process of developing proxy hydrology records from tree rings for Wasatch Front creeks in order to provide water managers with a longer period of record to aid in planning. The WADR group is carrying out their technical work and stakeholder interactions following an earlier model developed by Connie Woodhouse and Jeff Lukas in Colorado. WWA intends to follow this effort through a real-time, longitudinal tracking of the process and interactions between the WADR research team and water managers to gain insights into the challenges, capabilities, and limitations in the incorporation of tree-ring data into planning processes. PIs will also compare the research-stakeholder interactions on the Wasatch Front with those that were documented in Colorado in Rice et al. (2009) to see if any cross-regional differences can be observed and then examined. Ultimately, this project is intended to improve the co-production of knowledge between researchers and decision-makers in water resources.
The TreeFlow Web Resource and Applied Paleohydrology
Principal Investigator
Jeff Lukas
Updating of a comprehensive web-based tree-ring paleohydrology resource (http://treeflow.info) that addresses regional needs and interests and is expandable to cover additional regions and data in the future.
As in past years, this entails continued work to maintain the TreeFlow online resource of tree-ring paleohydrology records by adding newly published data and other information, and providing guidance to others developing tree-ring reconstructions. PI Lukas will also provide guidance to Utah State University researchers conducting applied paleohydrologic work in the Wasatch Front in Utah, following the model of past WWA work in applied paleohydrology.
University of Colorado Boulder 
