Ecological impacts of climate change and variability on Western landscapes are often investigated in isolation, despite the fact that these impacts affect water quality, quantity, ecosystem services, and management of human water infrastructure. For example, the impacts of mountain pine beetle on water supplies are not fully understood, but are presumed to increase runoff and nutrient delivery to watersheds in the short-term. Research areas in need of cross-sector integration include climate change impacts to forests, fires, pests, invasive species (quagga and zebra mussels, especially), and the ripple effects of these impacts to ecosystem and economic services, energy production, water quality, quality, and management. Public lands feature prominently in these impacts and include national parks, national forests, BLM land, as well as state holdings. We are especially interested in the critical ecosystem and economic services provided by public lands. Federal agencies (including BLM) are now required to include climate change in their planning, providing a large opportunity. There is both an emerging need for this research and methods to implement and apply the science in planning strategies. This theme has a significant nexus with the new demand for climate information by federal agencies such as USFWS. This is a fundamentally new theme for WWA. It is being driven by the knowledge that ecosystems provide significant services to humans, are understudied, and changes have the potential to significantly impact humans.
COMPLETED PROJECTS
CURRENT RESEARCH & ASSESSMENTS
Controls on pH and Ammonia Toxicity in Rivers of the Colorado Plains
Climate Change Impacts on Public Lands in the Upper Colorado River Basin
The Green River Headwaters Network: Building Partnerships, Infrastructure and Knowledge for Sustainable Resource Management
Bark Beetles & Forest Change
Controls on pH and Ammonia Toxicity in Rivers of the Colorado Plains
Primary Investigators: J. McCutchan, S. van Drunick
Contributors:
J. Lukas
The main objective of this project is to determine the relative importance of factors leading to high pH in Colorado Plains streams that are dominated or strongly influenced by wastewater effluent: these factors include temperature, hydrology (volume of flow), and photosynthetic rate. Temperature and algal biomass affect photosynthetic rate, and the effect of photosynthetic rate on pH is amplified at low flow. Thus, ammonia toxicity is directly and indirectly linked to temperature and rates of photosynthesis, and these interactions are strongest when water levels are low (e.g., during periods of drought or late in the irrigation season). Because algal biomass is related to photosynthetic rate and temperature, and biomass is more easily measured than rates of metabolism, measurements of algal biomass and temperature will be used as a surrogate for photosynthetic rate in this study. Recent observations of high pH concurrent with high temperature in Boulder Creek suggest a link between climate variation and metabolic processes affecting pH. Because of the long lead-time for planning and construction of treatment facilities, it is important for dischargers and regulatory agencies to anticipate how pH may change in response to climate variability. Empirical relationships developed with this work will provide a basis for understanding how changes in climate and water management may affect metabolic processes in streams and rivers, water quality, and treatment costs for domestic wastewater in the future. During 2010-2011, field measurements and samples will be collected at 2-4 stations on each of the following streams: Boulder Creek, St. Vrain Creek, and the South Platte River. The goal of sampling will be to determine the conditions associated with episodes of high pH. One important goal will be to determine for each location the rate at which algal biomass accumulates, critical flows above which biomass is lost, and relationships between algal biomass, hydrology (e.g., flow volume and time since a critical flow), and pH. If high pH occurs only after extended periods of low flow, over which time algal biomass has accumulated to high levels, changes in water management or the timing and amount of precipitation may have significant effects on pH. Algal biomass can develop rapidly in streams with high nutrient concentrations, however, and high pH could occur after brief periods of low flow. Understanding the relationships between hydrology, development of algal biomass, and high pH will be necessary for predictions of pH in Plains streams under future conditions (e.g., with changes in climate or water-management practices). Temperature at each station will be monitored by use of recording loggers. At intervals of 1-4 weeks, algal biomass (as chlorophyll a) will be quantified at each station, and concentrations of dissolved oxygen and pH will be measured (once in the morning and once in the afternoon, thereby providing a basis for approximation of photosynthetic rate). At points where algal biomass is measured, depth and flow velocity also will be measured. Sampling events will be adjusted as necessary to capture important hydrologic events (e.g., floods sufficient to cause bed movement). The main objective of data analyses will be to develop statistical relationships between controls on metabolic processes and pH. In addition to analyses derived from field studies, historical data for Boulder Creek, St. Vrain Creek, and the South Platte River will be analyzed to identify relationships between temperature, hydrology, and pH. Historical measurements of algal biomass, which are critical for a complete understanding of factors controlling pH, are not available for these locations, but the long data records will provide additional information relevant to the goals of the project.
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Climate Change Impacts on Public Lands in the Upper Colorado River Basin
Primary Investigators: J. Neff, K. Cozzetto, D. Fernandez
Contributors: I. Rangwala, J. Barsugli
Our focus in the past year and for the coming year is to develop ecologically-oriented drought vulnerability spatial assessments for the southwestern Colorado region. There are many drought indices available and many different projections of how drought might change in the future. The rationale for this study is that the impacts of a drought are strongly dependant on physical and biological factors. The same magnitude of drought may cause some plants to die while others survive. In the early 2000s drought in southwestern Colorado, there was massive pinyon pine dieback but this did not occur uniformly across the landscape; dieback was highly variable. Our hypothesis, and the motivation for this work, is that drought impacts can be better predicted by examining how drought and other climatic variations impact specific ecosystems characterized by unique combinations of soil texture, depth, and vegetation type. We are currently midway through an exercise that uses ecological site characterizations (e.g. the Ecological Site Type descriptor from the NRCS) to example vegetation/soil complex responses to drought in SW Colorado. As an example, we are asking the question of whether an upland (~7000 ft) pinyon-juniper (PJ) forest on shallow soils is more or less vulnerable to reduced winter-time precipitation than an upland PJ forest on deep soils or a shrub-land on deep soils at a similar elevation. The more applied point of this exercise is that the physical and ecological factors that determine vegetation response to drought vary across landscapes alongside land uses and so management planning for drought-sensitive issues (e.g. fire, grazing) could benefit from more ecologically-oriented drought vulnerability assessment. We are using an arid land vadose zone hydrology model for simulations (Eric Tilton; CU-Boulder) focusing first on the area near Durango (<7000 ft). In 2010, we will finish the drought impacts analysis and compare it to satellite remote sensing determination of pinyon juniper dieback during the early 2000s drought as a spatial test of our vulnerability assessment (e.g., if the pinyon are dying in places where we would have predicted them to be healthy, then we can learn something about the model/mapping program). The dieback analysis is currently in press (Huang et al. 2010) and Neff is a coauthor, so those field validation data are available to us. In 2010, we will also expand our analyses to the low elevation (<7000 ft) regions of the Colorado Plateau south of I-70, with a primary focus on PJ forests for field validation, and we will explore additional options for examination of sage and grassland settings. This regionalization plan will not include spatially explicit hydrologic modeling – the data quality and density for that type of modeling make such an activity somewhat risky. Instead, we are targeting case-study ecosystems for site scale modeling so we can explore the mechanistic controls of ecological drought response – by selecting those case studies from the NRCS ecological site characteristics, we can develop a map of vulnerability that extrapolates the functional behavior of our case-study sites to other similar systems (e.g. shallow PJ forests around 7000 ft would be one class within the projection). Our major goal now is to develop a publishable analysis out of this preliminary work. Two major issues were identified in the preliminary analysis. One is that accurate simulation of plant mortality will be beyond the scope of this project as there are ongoing debates as to how best to predict mortality (and whether it is indeed predictable). For our 2010 manuscript, we will focus on the interaction of root depth and soil physical characteristics (texture/depth) on soil moisture responses to a winter, summer, and full-year drought scenario. These simulations should be completed by the end of May 2010 and we will begin working on the draft manuscript shortly thereafter.
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The Green River Headwaters Network: Building Partnerships, Infrastructure and Knowledge for Sustainable Resource Management
Primary Investigators: S. Gray
Contributors:
G. McCabe, R.E. Gresswell, I. Burke
Addressing these shortcomings will undoubtedly require many years of work, and the efforts of multiple agencies, NGOs and academic partners. We propose to jumpstart this process with a pilot project targeted on the Green River Headwaters (GRH) in west-central Wyoming. This project will focus on three immediate, critical needs: 1. Design and preliminary installation of a monitoring network that will link stream discharge and watershed structure to water temperatures and other controls on aquatic ecosystems. This network will provide data needed for model calibrations, while also serving as a template for the development of a more robust and comprehensive monitoring system. 2. Exploration of modeling techniques that will link precipitation, discharge, air temperatures, and water temperatures in critical headwaters ecosystems. 3. Creation of a broad, well-informed and thoroughly engaged stakeholder network that recognizes the importance of both traditional and non-consumptive uses of water. Identifying these stakeholder groups will be a key component of this project. Initial contacts with Wyoming Trout Unlimited, Wyoming Game and Fish, and the Town of Pinedale show great promise for including these entities as primary stakeholders. Pre-proposal scoping and numerous conversations with state water agencies also suggest that a collection of Green River Basin and Jackson Hole-area outfitters are excellent candidates to represent that stakeholder group. Likewise, persons involved in the State’s Basin Advisory Groups (BAGs) for the Green River Basin can be enlisted to fill the ranks of other key groups (e.g. local irrigators, business interests, minerals industry). A central theme of this pilot project will be the management and persistence of Colorado cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki pleuriticus) and other native salmonid species in the GRH. Changing land use, resource extraction, increased water demand, dam-regulation and development have compromised native trout habitat in many parts of the western U.S. (Williams et al. 2009). To date, the GRH has experienced relatively few of these impacts, but this is beginning to change. More importantly, projections for regional climate point to increasing drought, severe low-flows, high water temperatures, and altered flow regimes (Gray and Anderson 2010). Exactly how these changes will impact native trout in the GRH is unknown. In addition to impacts on a world-class fishery, changes in flows—timing and amount—also affect boating, birdwatching, and hunting opportunities. We propose to implement a small, targeted field study whereby new and emerging sensor technologies will be used to measure discharge, air temperatures, and water temperatures in the GRH. While the mainstem Green River and its major tributaries are well-gauged, runoff and water temperatures in small, higher elevation streams—many of them critical trout habitats—are not measured. Water and air temperatures will be monitored using a distributed network of “i-Button” type sensors (Lundquist and Lott 2008) in 4-6 headwaters streams, with initial installations taking place as early as feasible in the 2010 runoff season. Data collection will continue through the year, with field visits for maintenance and data downloads each spring and fall. Streams will be selected based on existing surveys of critical trout habitat, and temperature readings will be paired with discharge estimates from a network of miniature pressure transducers. Furthermore, network design will capitalize on an ongoing mountain pine beetle outbreak in the GRH, thus laying the groundwork for future studies of vegetation-change impacts in these aquatic systems. Here we will profit from WWA’s links to monitoring and instrumentation expertise, and leverage both UW and WWA capacity for online outreach and data dissemination. Sampling design is taking place in collaboration with experts on trout habitat monitoring from the USGS Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center (e.g., Clint Muhlfeld), and we have contacted regional USDA Forest Service researchers to ensure that our network compliments similar efforts that are being initiated in neighboring basins (e.g. South Fork of the Shoshone River). The second thrust of this project will be the development of a toolbox of modeling techniques that can be used to explore the potential impacts of climate variability and change on these headwaters streams. In 2010, we will use a basin water balance (WB) approach (e.g., Gray and McCabe 2010) to explore how broad-scale changes in temperature and precipitation might affect discharge in the GRH. Observations from the proposed field network will also be used to calibrate models describing the relationship between water temperatures, discharge, air temperature, and key elements of watershed structure (e.g., Isaak et al. 2007). We propose to convene a joint UW and WWA “modeling summit” in Spring 2011 where researchers and key stakeholders will develop a coordinated strategy for linking hydroclimate and ecosystem change throughout the GRH. Here we will take advantage of WWA’s long history in research coordination, and its ties to NOAA, NCAR, and other groups involved in simulation and predictive modeling across the Upper Colorado. Specifically we anticipate that WWA staff would help identify and recruit participants, and work with PI Gray and cooperator Burke to help organize and facilitate the modeling workshop. For logistical reasons, this modeling summit will likely be held in either the Bozeman, Montana area or in the Denver area. Recognition of the value of water for environmental and other non-consumptive uses represents a fundamental shift in the GRH, and this shift is taking place against a background of massive natural gas development. The GRH has likewise seen more industrial water demand, at the same time that an influx of energy workers and “amenity migrants” has intensified municipal needs. Strategies for the management and persistence of native trout—as well as sustainability of a burgeoning recreation industry—must account for these shifts in conjunction with climate variability and change. Addressing these issues will necessarily require engagement across a wide range of stakeholder groups. Because of the historical dominance of agriculture in GRH water policy, we anticipate holding a series of 2-3 workshops in 2011 that will focus on non-consumptive uses of water and the role of water in regional ecosystems. Workshops will be held in western Wyoming, with two likely locations being the Pinedale and/or Rock Springs. If time and funding allow, we also hope to hold a related workshop in Cheyenne, Wyoming that would capture more of the state agency staff located in or around the state capitol. Workshop themes will include results from the monitoring and modeling components of this study, as well as general assessments of potential hydroclimatic change. These research-type presentations will form a springboard for 1) identifying critical issues related to water and ecosystem management in the GRH; 2) exploring additional stakeholder science/data needs; 3) creating outreach and data products tailored to the needs of local stakeholders. Again, this aspect of the project will capitalize on WWA’s skill in engaging stakeholders, especially those from outside of agriculture. Here we anticipate that WWA would co-organize and facilitate at least one of these workshops. Pre-proposal scoping also suggests that Wyoming Game and Fish, the Wildlife Conservation Society and Wyoming Trout Unlimited are willing to co-host one or more of these workshops. Other outreach efforts will include the development of a GRH website hosted by WWA that will focus on the compilation of existing data and information, as well as the dissemination of project results.
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Bark Beetles & Forest Change
Primary Investigators: E. Gordon, J. Lukas
Contributors: J. McCutchan, S. van Drunick, J. Neff, I. Rangwala
Our main objective in the next year will be to expand the geographic scope of our work while strengthening connections made in FY2010, and developing additional resources. Our focus in FY2010 was the area most affected by MPB: the Colorado Front Range, adjacent areas on the Western Slope (e.g., Summit and Grand Counties), and south-central Wyoming. Given what we know of forest and woodland impacts from bark beetles in the region, there is a need to expand our efforts into southwestern Colorado and Utah. Doing so would both help stakeholders and researchers and improve WWA’s relationships and connections in those areas. While dwarfed in scale by the MPB infestation, an outbreak of spruce beetles has killed more than 100,000 acres of Englemann spruce in Colorado, mostly in the San Juan Mountains. Due to their location in the elevation band of highest precipitation and snowfall, these forests have a critical influence on regional water cycles. Adjacent to the San Juans, large portions of the Colorado Plateau saw a massive outbreak of the pinyon ips beetle in the wake of the early 2000s drought and remain vulnerable to future infestations. In Utah, spruce beetles have infested nearly 500,000 acres, primarily in the Dixie National Forest. Building on existing relationships with stakeholders in the San Juans through WWA team members including Neff and Rangwala, we propose to survey stakeholders and researchers working in southwestern Colorado and Utah. Once we are able to better understand their concerns and existing research and mitigation efforts, we will then develop workshops and other mechanisms for improving science-stakeholder interactions and coordinating future research. We would also help to connect scientists and stakeholders in southwestern Colorado with those we have worked with in northern Colorado and southern Wyoming. We also propose to continue work initiated by Gordon with other CU-Boulder graduate students (Pugh and Cooper) to develop a conceptual model of water impacts from tree death in mountain regions. This would be written up for dissemination to stakeholders as a WWA white paper, as well as submission to a journal. Finally, we will continue to maintain and update the Beetles, Water, and Climate clearinghouse website that we initiated during the current funding year. The benefits of efforts focused primarily on stakeholder engagement may be difficult to quantify, but we feel they lay important groundwork for establishing WWA’s credibility and presence outside of the water management sector, and supporting WWA’s mission of identifying and describing climate- related vulnerabilities in the region.
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