This theme is designed to provide resource managers with the tools, data, and information about climate that are necessary to support management decisions. Projects within this theme would incorporate collaborative work with decision makers to develop, interpret, and apply climate information. Addressing topics related to understanding, explaining, and resolving issues related to uncertainty are important. In most cases, water will be the ‘natural resource’ of note. This theme is an extension of work that WWA has been pursuing for many years, especially in the Colorado River Basin. We anticipate many continuing projects will continue to evolve within this framework.
BACKGROUND INFORMATION ON THE COLORADO RIVER
CURRENT RESEARCH & ASSESSMENTS
Reconciling Projections of Future Colorado River Streamflow: The goal of this project is to reconcile future Colorado River streamflow projections by evaluating the various methodologies and models being used in projections and to understand why different modeling approaches produce varying flow reduction amounts. The second component of this project entails identifying a common subset of appropriate climate scenarios and models in development of future projections of streamflow; and using these scenarios and models to generate a consistent suite of Colorado River streamflow projections by the mid to late 21st century. Results will directly apply to the needs of water planners across the western U.S., and similar mid-latitude continental regions where water resources are heavily dependent on snowmelt runoff from mountainous headwater areas. Nick Graham (HRC), Dan Cayan (CAP), Dennis Lettenmaier, Andy Wood (CIG), Robert Webb, Brad Udall, (WWA) Martin Hoerling (NOAA-WWA), Jonathan Overpeck, Holly Hartman (CLIMAS).
Current and Future Water Demand at a Major Front Range City. This task investigates the many forces that impact water demand for a major Denver suburb, Aurora Areas of study include how recent drought, climate variables, demographics, pricing, irrigation technology, in-home water meters and other variables affect water demand. A literature review on water demand is also included. Researchers Kenney, Klein, Goemans, Lowrey, Reidy (Aurora Water).
Colorado River Flow Yield Study. This study synthesizes information from paleo streamflow reconstructions, future streamflow projections from models, native streamflow reconstructions and other sources to generate an accurate flow yield estimate for the Colorado River. Researchers Kenney, Pulwarty, Udall, Woodhouse.
Colorado River Drought Analysis. This on-going project involves updated analysis from the 1995 Severe and Sustained Drought Study with special emphasis given to lessons learned from the 1999 – 2004 drought. Researchers Kenney, Ray, Pulwarty.
Colorado River Climate Change Analysis. This project involves utilizing the USBR CRSS Model to investigate vulnerability of basin to changes in inflows based on IPCC AR4 model runs. Researchers Rajagopalan, Zagona (CADSWES at CU).
Colorado Meteorological Station Data long-term trends. In conjunction with the Colorado State Climatologist’s office, this study evaluates to what stations are suitable in Colorado for long-term precipitation and temperature trends. Researchers Wolter, Doesken (State Climatologist).
IPCC AR4 Model Suitability for Colorado. This study investigates the value and applicability of recent AR4 model run data for use by Denver Water and others water providers. Researchers Hoerling, Eischeid.
Streamflow Variability. In conjunction with an ongoing National Science Foundation (NSF) effort, this project explores apparent tendencies for Western rivers to illustrate increasing variability and synchroneity in streamflows. Researcher Jain.
Estimating the impacts of complex climatic events: The economic costs of drought in Colorado, Nebraska and New Mexico. This study evaluates economic costs of drought in Colorado, Nebraska and New Mexico. In addition to developing impact assessment methodologies, this study will develop guidelines for impacts reporting at the state and local levels. This effort supplements a SARP funded proposal and will be a joint effort with the National Drought Mitigation Center. Researchers Pulwarty, Howe, Goemans.
Native Communities & Climate Change: Legal and Policy Approaches to Protect Tribal Legal Rights: The WWA has contributed to this report, prepared primarily by the University of Colorado Law School (Natural Resources Law Center), examining a diversity of climate change impacts on tribes, as well as how tribes might address these issues through legal and policy measures. The study focuses on 4 regional case studies-Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, the Southwest, and Florida-to discuss how the effects of climate change impacts tribal resources, communities and activities differently in each of these areas, as well as legal and policy measures that tribes might employ to protect their legal rights in the absence of federal action. The penultimate draft of the report was released for review through a national database of American Indian Tribes in February 2007. Final publication is anticipated for summer 2007. Researchers Mark Squillace, NRLC, Sarah Krakoff, NRLC, Douglas Kenney, NRLC, Jon Hanna, NRLC, Christina Alvord, CIRES, Ethan Plaut, NRLC, Scott Gray, NRLC.
Grand Canyon Adaptive Management. This study develops forecasts of late-summer storms and associated sediment input into the Grand Canyon to support multi-stakeholder adaptive management experiments aimed at sustaining ecological, cultural and recreational activities. This work is in collaboration with the Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center. Researchers Jain, Pulwarty, Eischeid.
Nonparametric streamflow reconstructions. This task will investigate an entirely new way of reconstructing streamflows from tree rings, using a statistical technique not previously used by dendrochronologists. This project is jointly funded by US Bureau of Reclamation, Boulder City, NV Office. Researchers Woodhouse, Lukas, Harding, Gangopadhyay (Hydrosphere).
Streamflow Reconstructions for Water Managers in Gunnison Basin for EIS. Using a novel combination of historic gage and tree-ring data, this study will create new streamflow reconstructions intended for use in the EIS. Researchers Rajagopalan, Ray, Regonda, Zagona (CADSWES).
Forecasts, Data, Tools and Product Evaluation
Colorado (and Interior Southwest) forecasts (experimental guidance)
This website consists of six parts: Status and Outlook for ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation), the most important global climate variability factor on year-to-year time scales; background information on regional climate variability of the interior western U.S., and pertinent ENSO associations; “official" CPC (Climate Prediction Center) forecasts; experimental seasonal forecasts for precipitation in the interior western U.S.; discussion of rainfall forecasts, and useful links to shorter-term forecasts; and executive summary of this webpage. Klaus Wolter, ESRL, NOAA.
South Platte Regional Assessment Tool (SPRAT)
Draining the northeast quadrant of Colorado, the South Platte River Basin covers approximately 20 percent of the state and houses roughly 70 percent of its population, including the Denver-Metro area and Front Range cities to the north. SPRAT models the movement and allocation of water throughout the Basin, allowing users to make relative comparisons of the water supply and demand impacts associated with various population growth, climate/hydrologic, and agricultural land-use scenarios, and by allowing the merits of various water management alternatives (adaptations) and infrastructure changes to be similarly compared. Researcher Chris Goemans, CSU.
Front Range large water providers’ vulnerabilities and climate products needs. This on-going task seeks to identify water user needs for climate products (information and forecasts) in order to better match these needs to WWA and NOAA research, and to develop a dialogue between the water policy community and the research community. Researchers Ray and Lowrey.
Current and Anticipated Precipitation Anomalies over the U.S.
The purpose of this website is to monitor current and anticipated precipitation anomalies over the contiguous United States. Anticipated precipitation anomalies are those which might be expected over approximately the next 2 weeks to 6 months, based on operational or experimental forecasts. Gary Bates, ESRL, NOAA
Reservoir Management Decision Calendar
Graphically depicts the annual decisions of reservoir operators based on whether they relate to planning, operations or may be affected by climate and weather forecasts. Researchers Andrea Ray, Robert Webb, John Wiener.
Workshops and Presentations
Climate Workshops for Front Range Water Managers: Climate workshops geared towards municipal, state, and federal water managers, extension specialists, other policy makers interested in climate and water resources management. Topics include long-term climate trends and projections and potential impacts to water resources in the West, as well as seasonal forecasts and outlooks. WWA has an ongoing effort to host or co-sponsor workshops with water managers to develop and maintain two-way communication on needs for climate information by this sector and climate research and products.
Dendrohydrological Workshops. Increasing interest by water managers in tree-ring reconstructions of streamflow has led to demand for a hands-on workshop on how the reconstructions are generated and assessed. The goal of these workshops is to provide managers with the tools to better interpret and apply the reconstructions to planning. Researchers Woodhouse, Lukas, Webb.
Dendrohydrological Capacity Building. Researchers in Wyoming have expressed interest in learning technical details about streamflow reconstructions. This workshop explores the technical details of streamflow reconstruction; providing researchers with the capacity to begin streamflow reconstructions. Researchers Woodhouse, Lukas.
Forecast Verification Workshop. In order to gage forecast quality, users must know the accuracy and skill of seasonal forecasts. This workshop will introduce water managers to the basics of forecast verification statistics. Invitees will include Colorado and Wyoming managers. Researchers Ray, Webb, Wolter, Hoerling, Hamill, Udall.
Climate and Tourism Workshop. Tourism and recreation in the West are a large part of the economy and are strongly linked to climate. This workshop will result in an applied research and services agenda. Workshop is scheduled for January 23-24, 2007. Researchers Pulwarty, Kenney, Alvord, Udall.
Water Availability Task Force. Provide technical support for Governor’s drought task force as needed. Researchers Wolter, Lowrey, Ray.
Climate Change and the Future of the American West, Natural Resource Law Center, University of Colorado. WWA assists as a co-sponsor for the CU Law School Workshop on climate change for attorneys and other decision makers.
Hard Times on the Colorado River: Drought, Growth, and the Future of the Compact (2005)
Twenty-sixth annual conference at the Natural Resources Law Center in Boulder, Colorado from June 8-10, 2005
NIDIS Remote Sensing Workshop: NIDIS workshop co-sponsered by the WWA featuring satellite remote sensing technologies and products useful in monitoring, planning, and mitigating drought in the United States.
PUBLICATIONS
Climate Change in Colorado: A Synthesis to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation: The Western Water Assessment was commissioned by the Colorado Water Conservation Board to produce a synthesis of climate change research relevant to Colorado. The intention is that information in the report will be useful for water managers intending to develop climate change adaptation strategies. Andrea Ray (NOAA), Joseph Barsugli (CIRES), Kristen Averyt (WWA), Klaus Wolter (CIRES), Martin Hoerling (NOAA), Nolan Doesken (CSU), Brad Udall (WWA), Robert S. Webb (NOAA)
WWA and NOAA comment on EIS for Colorado River Interim Guidelines for Lower Basin Shortages and Coordinated Operations for Lakes Powell and Mead. For more information on the EIS see: http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/programs/strategies.html
Appendix U: Climate Technical Work Group Report, Colorado River Interim Guidelines for Lower Basin Shortages and Coordinated Operations for Lakes Powell and Mead
Summaries & General Information
Intermountain West Climate Summary Climate information is widely scattered on the web and other locations and consequently water managers and other climate sensitive sectors have requested a single monthly summary of climate information. The Intermountain West Climate Summary releases updated climate and water resource information including precipitation, temperature, snow water equivalent, long-lead temperature and precipitation outlooks, reservoir levels and streamflow forecasts. Researchers Ray, Lowrey, Alvord, Udall.
Colorado River Climate Primer. This publication summarizes Paleo-climate, current climate patterns and future climatology projections for the Colorado River Basin Researchers Kenney, Udall, Pulwarty, Wolter.
Websites
2002 Drought
This site provides WWA publications addressing lessons learned from the 2002 drought as well as other information and resources. Researchers Researchers Douglas Kenney, NRLC, Bobbie Klein, CSTPR, Chris Goemans, CSU, Andrea Ray, Jessica Lowrey, WWA.
Colorado River Climate, Management, Law and Policy website. Enhance and update existing site on matters of interest to Colorado River water managers. Add discussion of useful existing climate products and new climate product needs by water managers. Researchers Pulwarty, Kenney, Ray, Udall, Lowrey
Colorado River Streamflow - A Paleo Perspective website. This site will provide information about long-term variations in streamflow for the Colorado River basin, including the 2006 Woodhouse, Gray, Meko tree-ring reconstruction of flow at the Lees Ferry gage. Researchers Woodhouse, Lukas, Meko (UA-CLIMAS).
TreeFlow: Streamflow Reconstructions for the West website. This redesigned website will be an expansion of an existing website on tree-ring streamflow reconstructions for Colorado, and encompasses reconstructions across the western U.S. The website allows water managers to access and utilize streamflow sequences much longer than the historical gage record to better plan for climate variability and change. Jointly funded by the NCDC Paleoclimatology Branch. Researchers Woodhouse, Lukas.
Climate Services Clearinghouse.
The Climate Services Clearinghouse draws together climate services and products across sectors, from NOAA, non-NOAA government agencies, academia, and the private sector, enabling providers to identify and fix overlap and gaps in existing services. It also enables site visitors to locate any service of interest. Researchers Genevieve Maricle, Roger Pielke, Jr.
WWA's Guide to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Webpages
These webpages provide an overview of the IPCC process and three Working Groups including definitions, and inks to official IPCC documents and materials. Researchers: Jessica Lowrey, WWA, Andrea Ray, NOAA, ESRL.
Hard Times on the Colorado River: Drought, Growth, and the Future of the Compact (2005)
Twenty-sixth annual conference at the Natural Resources Law Center in Boulder, Colorado from June 8-10, 2005
Peer-reviewed Journal Publications
Aurora Study:
Aurora Water has implemented a variety of demand management strategies in the past 4 years that collectively have produced a significant reduction in municipal water demand. Researchers from the Western Water Assessment (WWA) in cooperation with Aurora Water are conducting an analysis of Aurora Water’s billing database over the past eight years, focusing on the residential sector which showed the highest level of response, in an effort to provide insight into water use, consumption behavior, and effectiveness of watering restrictions. Researchers Douglas Kenney, NRLC, Bobbie Klein, CSTPR, Chris Goemans, CSU, Jessica Lowrey, WWA.
Colorado Compact Transcripts
The Colorado River compact was negotiated by representatives from the seven states that surround the Colorado River (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming) and a representiative from the U.S. Department of Interior. The negotiations took place over 27 sessions in 1922.
This website contains transcripts from Colorado Compact negotiations. Researchers Kenney, Lowrey, Ray, Udall.
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