Emerging Initiatives and Adaptation Strategies to Inform Climate Services
In the climate change vernacular, adaptation refers to the human response to inevitable changes in climate, and mitigation encompasses the suite of efforts to reduce atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. The IPCC and other major organizations tend to treat these two matters independently, although planning separately for each aspect of the climate picture can present conflicts. One example is the national investment and interest in biofuels. However, dedicated biofuel crops may not reduce carbon when the larger context is considered (e.g. fertilizer), and the amount of water needed to grow these crops may expand existing water use. Biofuels may thus trade off one benefit for another, increasing vulnerability. Another example involves water conservation. Conservation that supplies new growth may be mal-adaptive if declining supplies and increased variability occur with climate change. This theme is designed to draw attention to the needs of decision makers to find productive adaptive strategies, especially to climate change but also to natural variability. This theme is being driven by intense stakeholder interest in exactly how to adapt to climate change given the uncertainties, and how not to adapt.
COMPLETED PROJECTS
CURRENT RESEARCH & ASSESSMENTS
Drought Adaptation among Ranchers in the Intermountain West (and building a network of agriculturalists to inform WWA)
Towards Frameworks for Climate Services: Meeting the needs of different users with different information requirements
Water, Energy, and Climate in the Colorado River Basin
Water-Energy-Climate Change (WECC) Nexus
Tribal Climate Change Adaptation Planning Workshop for Colorado Plateau Tribes
Watershed & Climate Educational Session to Supplement SOARS Seminar Program
Addressing Tribal Climate Service Needs Through Educational Outreach: NASA/NDATC Tribal Faculty Sabbatical Program
Drought Adaptation among Ranchers in the Intermountain West (and building a network of agriculturalists to inform WWA)
Primary Investigators: W. Travis, K. Gangwer
Contributors:
R. Klein, L. Dilling
We propose to focus our surveys in the area most severely affected by the 2002 drought (e.g., D4 “exceptional drought”), which by happenstance concentrated along the boundaries of Colorado, Wyoming and Utah. This provides the strongest signal in terms of likely impacts and adaptations (even if we find few adaptations), and allows us to work in all three WWA states. We’ll start by identifying agency officials (decision-makers that can directly affect ranchers’ access to resources during drought, especially the range conservationists in the BLM areas or Forest Service districts where the ranches and allotments are located), these also supply contacts with local ranchers and ranch operations in Moffat County, CO; Sweetwater County, WY; and Uintah County, UT. Our target field areas will offer the mix of private and public lands grazing common throughout the Interior West, and we want to sample a range of ranch operation sizes and structures, and access to different range ecologies (e.g., from low deserts to mountain meadows), which we expect is an important strategy in their drought response set. We will develop a questionnaire on impacts and adaptation measures. Topics for quantitative and qualitative data collection:
- Common range and herd management decisions sensitive to climate variation
- Impacts of drought: on finances, herds, vegetation, management practices, community
- Use of public lands as part of adaptive strategies, links with agencies (BLM, USFS, state)
- Experience with public-land management during drought (ex: mandatory herd reduction, removal)
- Use of insurance or drought disaster payments
- Measures taken to prepare for future dryness
- For agency range conservationists: frequency and timing of drought management decisions, sources of information for making such decisions, impact on permitees and community, planning for climate change/future dryness
- Ranches with significant irrigation: Lower yields tied to crop stress and/or senior water rights calls; Changes in practices such as less water intensive crops, irrigation techniques; Longer growing season; Shorter time span for growing irrigated crops due to earlier snowmelt; Increased need for irrigation; Increasing conflict between water rights holders
- Develop human subjects protocol (disclosure, data handling and reporting back to interviewees) and secure approval from the university’s human research committee. This may also include request to allow us to contact them in future for additional WWA research.
- Identify farmers and ranchers in the field area (with help from the state climatologists, and university range scientists); ask participants in WWA’s 2009 “Dealing with Drought” workshops for suggestions, as well state and local agricultural officials (e.g., extension agents). Use snowball technique for sample of roughly 10 ranchers per state (30 total).
- Conduct interviews, analyze data.
- Data analysis, findings, write-up.
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Towards Frameworks for Climate Services: Meeting the needs of different users with different information requirements
Primary Investigators: K. Averyt, G. Owen (CLIMAS)
Contributors:
E. Gordon, J. Lukas, D. Ferguson (CLIMAS)
In the coming year, we propose to present the RFC Water Resources Outlook tool workshop in Utah (August 2010) and in another location in the Lower Colorado Basin. Further, we propose to run the workshop in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee Basin in the Southeast in collaboration with the Southeast Climate Consortia (SECC) and the NIDIS Pilot program in the region. This regional comparison is intended to highlight similarities and differences between two populations who are potential users of the same product. This information will help us identify differences in the user populations and determine changes in the Water Resources Outlook product that might be necessary for a different suite of users.
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Water, Energy, and Climate in the Colorado River Basin
Primary Investigators: K. Averyt, R. Klein, D. Kenney
Contributors:
S. Tellinghausen, R. Pulwarty (NIDIS)
In the past year, we built a significant network of researchers, expanded the UC-Santa Barbara energy for water model, and presented research results at several major meetings. We will build on this initial work in the coming year with three major activities:
1) Reconciling Water-Energy Models Workshop
In the past year, we have identified that there are three distinct models/compilations of the water requirements for different energy technologies: the UCSB/WWA model (Keller, Wilkinson, Tellinghausen, Averyt), a model at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and a third at Sandia National Laboratory (Hightower). The differences among these models present a hurdle for moving forward with a large-scale endeavor to identify future water withdrawals and consumptive requirements for development of new energy capacity in the Colorado River Basin. Until the differences in these models can be reconciled, we cannot move forward with estimate of future water needs in the Basin. We propose a workshop bringing together the entities that developed each model to discuss the differences and identify the best estimates so the large-scale effort can move forward.
2) Integrated Model of Energy, Water, and Climate for the Colorado River Basin
Through last year’s activities, we identified a group including Los Alamos National Laboratory that has developed a dynamic model of the Colorado River Basin that includes energy infrastructure, hydrology, climate, and water law & policy. The developers of the model would like to make improvements and discuss the intricacies with a group of stakeholders. To this end, we propose bringing the modeling team to WWA, and having them discuss the technical details of their model with the climate model experts at NOAA and NCAR (Barsugli, Yates, Mearns), the hydrology experts at the University of Colorado (Rajagopolan), and the policy team at the Natural Resources Law Center at the University of Colorado (Kenney). Subsequently, we would hold a workshop for interested stakeholders to interact with the model results in order to provide additional feedback to the developers.
3) Connecting Water, Energy, and Climate Meeting
In February 2010, we presented information about the connections among energy, water, and climate at a meeting for energy utilities held by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). Subsequently, WWA and EPRI have agreed to co-host a meeting for both energy and water utilities that will focus on energy-water issues pertinent to the Interior West. We have secured funding through the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) for this effort, and the framing of the workshop is still being explored. We expect both practitioners and stakeholders will be involved in this week-long meeting, and one of the goals will be to identify future collaborations.
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Water-Energy-Climate Change (WECC) Nexus
Primary Investigators: D. Kenney
Contributors:
K. Averyt, B. Klein, B. Udall
In the coming year we plan to continue work on both efforts outlined above, and more specifically, to continue to integrate WWA personnel and activities into both efforts. Additionally, this support will be used to coordinate with and assist related water-energy projects managed primarily by Kristen Averyt.
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Tribal Climate Change Adaptation Planning Workshop for Colorado Plateau Tribes
Primary Investigators: S. Krakoff, J. Teel, R. Pulwarty, C. Alvord, K. Cozzetto
Contributors:
M. Wilensky, G. Voggesser
The workshop will occur in August or September 2010, depending on the availability of our partners and key stakeholders. We will prepare a Workshop Report within one month of the workshop that contains key recommendations for moving forward on the issues noted above (Section e(1)-(7)) and other findings resulting from the workshop. The Workshop Report will be circulated widely via the networks of the workshop partners and posted on their respective websites. In addition, we will draft an article that can be used in our respective online and print publications that describes the workshop objectives and outcomes directed to the NIDIS implementation team. Further, as this is envisioned as just the first step in a long-term project and collaboration, we will be working to develop proposals for future funding.
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Watershed & Climate Educational Session to Supplement SOARS Seminar Program
Primary Investigators: C. Alvord, R. Pandya, R. Haacker-Santos
Contributors:
K. Averyt, J. Lukas
- To supplement the SOARS seminar curriculum by offering a one-day tour of the Colorado River headwaters informed by instructional sessions and activities on climate and hydrologic processes in the western US, prior appropriation water allocation and management, and current WWA and related research and identified research needs. The objectives are three-fold: to improve student understanding of the relationship between Western climate, hydrologic processes, and water management; to provide contextual setting for the topics being discussed; and to encourage student interest in pursuing research in areas of needed expertise.
- Prior to this workshop, students will take a climate and hydrologic literacy test (>30 questions) that will allow WWA personnel to cater workshop sessions to address student gaps in understanding.
- Students and WWA personnel will travel to locations around and near Rocky Mountain National Park where students will participate in 2-4 topic-themed sessions that will include presentations by WWA personnel, supplementary participatory exercises to test student understanding and ability to apply presented information, and a Q&A session to clarify remaining questions
- Potential session topics include: Intermountain West climate and hydrology; climate change and water resources; and western water allocation and management under the prior appropriation doctrine. A list of topics will help formulate custom session topics and content based on input from SOARS personnel.
- WWA personnel will highlight 2-3 current projects as the frame to discuss research needs. This could help students identify areas of interest that are aligned with stakeholder needs, increasing the chances for funding of undergraduate and graduate research projects.
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Addressing Tribal Climate Service Needs Through Educational Outreach: NASA/NDATC Tribal Faculty Sabbatical Program
Primary Investigators: C. Alvord, C. McNutt, K. Averyt,
Contributors:
D. Kluck, R. Pandyu, R. Hacker-Santos, D. Ferguson
The purpose of this project is to supplement the NDATC faculty sabbatical program hosted at UCAR in summer 2010 by hosting a 3-4 hour Drought & Climate session at NOAA to inform development of tribal faculty classroom climate change curriculum. NDATC faculty members will spend two weeks in August at UCAR with the goal of enhancing their ability to teach about climate and climate change. The visits will combine opportunities to learn about UCAR and other area climate research labs with opportunities to initiate and develop collaborative projects like curriculum development, research, or grant writing. Participating Tribal faculty members from the NDATC tribal sabbatical program will convene with NOAA scientists and WWA personnel in a 3-hour session broken into four segments. The session will address climate science information gaps, introduce a suite of national and regional climate and drought information, resources and products for inclusion in climate change curricula, and compile feedback on the utility and applications of the showcased products in a white paper. The final segment of this session will introduce the concept of tribal climate service needs, to build upon the list of identified tribal climate service needs, and to discuss how NOAA, WWA and other entities could build a framework for addressing the identified climate service needs.
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