Information and Resources
Climate Vulnerability: Human activities and groups are sensitive to climate to the degree that they can be affected by it, and vulnerable to the degree that they can be harmed. Only the latter term incorporates a human judgment of value... vulnerability [refers] to the potential for negative outcomes or consequences. A resilient system, activity, or population is one with low vulnerability, being either resistant to hazard effects or readily capable of coping with and recovering from them... hazards demote either events threatening people and things that they value, or the probability of the occurrence of such events.
Impacts: " ...are the actual consequences (losses, or conceivably, gains) resulting from a biophysical event. Negative impacts are the product of hazard events and vulnerability." From Reasoning by analogy, a chapter by Meyer, W. B., K. W. Butzer, T. E. Downing, B. L. I. Turner, G. W. Wenzel, and J. L. Wescoat in Human Choice and Climate Change: The tools for policy analyses, S. Rayner and E. L. Malone, Eds. (1998) Batelle Press, 217-276.
Sensitivity is the degree to which a system will respond to a change in climatic conditions.
Vulnerability is the extent to which climate change will damage or harm a system. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.
WWA's Guide to the IPCC
These webpages provide an overview of the IPCC process and three Working Groups including definitions, and inks to official IPCC documents and materials. Researchers: Jessica Lowrey, WWA, Andrea Ray, NOAA, ESRL.
IPCC AR4 Report: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability
Full Report
Summary for Policy Makers
Technical Summary
Climate Change: A System Vulnerability Approach to Consider the Potential Impacts to 2050 of a Mid-Upper Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenario, Gilmanm, N., Randall, D., and P. Schwartz (2007)
USGCRP: Decision-Support Resources Development & Related Research on Human Contributions and Responses: http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/ProgramElements/human.htm
National Assessment report - “Water: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for the Water Resources of the United States” Gleick, 2000: http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/nacc/water/default.htm
Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, 2003
National Assessment Synthesis Team, US Climate Change Science Program: (www.climatescience.gov), US Global Change Research Program: (www.usgcrp.gov)
Climate Change: Critical Concepts in the Environment: Evaluating Recent and Future Climate Change, 2002
Climate Impacts in North America, Climate.org
Climate Institute Articles: Impacts and Vulnerabilities
Wildfires in Florida, Alaska, California, Canada, Australia, Europe and Siberia: A Climate Change Harbinger?
How Will Climate Warming Likely Affect the Incidence and Severity of Storms, Floods and Droughts in North America?
Will Climate Change Wipe Out the Polar Bear?
Climate Change Threatens Reindeer and Arctic People
Pentagon study suggests potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change
European Report Indicates Climate Change Impacts in Europe Likely to be Very Significant
Regional Information and Resources
Increasing temperatures have been linked to vegetation stress in the Western United States, forcing ranchers to travel longer distances to find adequate vegetation to feed cattle. Cattle round-up, New Mexico, photo courtesy USDA.
Relevant Chapters:
Chapter 8: Potential Consequences of Climate Variability & Change for the Western United States
Chapter 7: Potential Consequences of Climate Variability & Change for the Great Plains
Chapter 14: Potential Consequences of Climate Variability & Change for the Water Resources of the United States
Water Sector research
Western Region research
Metropolitan Water Supply Investigation report by hydrosphere (1999):http://www.hydrosphere.com/projects/planning_mgmt/mwsi.htm
Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Colorado River System(2002)
Poster by Niklas S. Christensen and Dennis P. Lettenmaier from the University of Washington.
Climate Change and its implications for the Rocky Mountain region
Smith, J., Wagner, C.
WWA Research and Projects
Water Rights and Climate Change: The Impact of a Shifting Hydrograph on the Timing and Administration of Water Rights in the West: In many basins throughout the West, snowmelt is coming earlier than in historic times, prompting holders of prior appropriation water rights to demand water at an earlier calendar date than in the past. This is obviously problematic for those rights defined in terms of specific calendar dates (associated with historic patterns of use), and may be even more troublesome for rights defined more generally (e.g., such as an “irrigation season” right), as this can have the net effect of increasing the diversion season and, thus, the size of the right. This ongoing project (Summer 2007 to Summer 2008) will examine the extent to which this problem exists in Colorado and in a yet-to-be-determined Pacific Northwest state, where earlier runoff is much more pronounced than in the Rocky Mountain region. Researchers Kenney, NRLC, Klein, CSTPR, Goemans, CSU, Alvord, CIRES.
Native Communities & Climate Change: Legal and Policy Approaches to Protect Tribal Legal Rights: The WWA has contributed to this report, prepared primarily by the University of Colorado Law School (Natural Resources Law Center), examining a diversity of climate change impacts on tribes, as well as how tribes might address these issues through legal and policy measures. The study focuses on 4 regional case studies-Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, the Southwest, and Florida-to discuss how the effects of climate change impacts tribal resources, communities and activities differently in each of these areas, as well as legal and policy measures that tribes might employ to protect their legal rights in the absence of federal action. The penultimate draft of the report was released for review through a national database of American Indian Tribes in February 2007. Final publication is anticipated for summer 2007. Researchers Mark Squillace, NRLC, Sarah Krakoff, NRLC, Douglas Kenney, NRLC, Jon Hanna, NRLC, Christina Alvord, CIRES, Ethan Plaut, NRLC, Scott Gray, NRLC
Climate and Tourism Workshop. Tourism and recreation in the West are a large part of the economy and are strongly linked to climate. This workshop will result in an applied research and services agenda. This workshop is sponsored by WWA and The Center for Sustainable Tourism, Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), January 23-24, 2007. Researchers Pulwarty, Kenney, Alvord, Udall.
Front Range large water providers’ vulnerabilities and climate products needs. This on-going task seeks to identify water user needs for climate products (information and forecasts) in order to better match these needs to WWA and NOAA research, and to develop a dialogue between the water policy community and the research community. Researchers Ray and Lowrey.
Reconciling Projections of Future Colorado River Streamflow
The goal of this project is to reconcile future Colorado River streamflow projections by evaluating the various methodologies and models being used in projections and to understand why different modeling approaches produce varying flow reduction amounts. The second component of this project entails identifying a common subset of appropriate climate scenarios and models in development of future projections of streamflow; and using these scenarios and models to generate a consistent suite of Colorado River streamflow projections by the mid to late 21st century. Results will directly apply to the needs of water planners across the western U.S., and similar mid-latitude continental regions where water resources are heavily dependent on snowmelt runoff from mountainous headwater areas.
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